What the Washington Nationals can learn from the Philadelphia Phillies’ mistakes

Now, the check for 2011 arrives. Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox, that’ll be $536,846,820, please. In light of the last 10 days, no tip is required.

The Yankees have now paid $2 billion over 11 years for one victory parade. The Red Sox look at names like John Lackey and Carl Crawford and wonder if they’ll be paying them forever or just until the crack of doom.

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And the Phillies just saw Ryan Howard crumple on the final out of their 1-0 loss to the Cards as they got booted out of October. As his five-year, $125 million contract extension kicks in, Howard, his team announced Saturday, has a torn Achilles’ tendon.

It’s time for a cost-benefit rethink for teams with baseball aspirations. 

In particular, do the Nationals really want to go down anything remotely akin to the gilded path that’s been taken by their NL East rival Phillies?

Take one look at Jayson Werth, a good player but one already attacked by his own $126 million contract, and their answer should be “No.”

Soon after the Nats signed Werth, one of baseball’s most successful executives said: “Do you know what this means? Once you start down that road, how many teams ever turn back? Now, they almost have to extend Ryan Zimmerman. What’s that, $100 million? Then they have to put a team around them or none of it makes sense. They just crossed their Rubicon.”

But, sometimes, you should slow down. For the Nats, now is that time. When $100 million names such as Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, who don’t really match the Nats’ current needs, are mentioned, just say, “Pass.” When pretty-good pitchers like C.J. Wilson are coveted simply because they’re the best of what’s in stock, say, “Nope.”

Don’t be cheap. Oh, there’s no going backward, not with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Bryce Harper and others bringing paying customers to South Capitol Street. The Nats’ payroll, in the mid-$60 millions, is barely higher than it was when the Lerner family bought the team from MLB in ’06 and is now ranked 21st in the game; it should be 50 percent higher on some future day. There are 12 teams with $100 million payrolls and there will, occasionally, be years when the Nats should join them.

But there’s no rush.

As the Nationals think about offseason decisions that impact future years, they now have valuable info to digest: Money still doesn’t ensure happiness in baseball. For roughly $166 million in payroll, about $100 million more than the Nats, the Phils just bought agony and a closing window of opportunity.

As the aging, gaudy, lopsided 102-win Phillies were crashing, the rest of the National League East was waiting for the black box to be pulled from the wreckage to see what cautionary lessons could be learned. The better to dump the Phils, the division champs the last five years, as fast as possible.     

When the Nats won eight of their last 10 games against the Phils, it seemed fluky, especially the last four with the Phils coasting after clinching. And ’12 still seems too soon for a showdown. But, for the first time, you can circle ’13, when Strasburg is off an innings limit and Harper may arrive, and claim it’s just as plausible as ’14 for a collision between these franchises.