Sluggish Derby field makes projecting Preakness winners a challenge


Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome and exercise rider Willie Delgado during an early morning workout Thursday in preparation for Saturday’s Preakness at Pimlico Race Course. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)
Columnist May 15, 2014

When California Chrome won the Kentucky Derby, racing fans loved the story: down-to-earth owners, an old-school trainer and a humbly bred colt. The saga could get even better as California Chrome attempts to win Saturday’s Preakness and move closer to a sweep of the Triple Crown.

But there was a detail that doesn’t fit well with this hopeful story line. The slow final time of the Derby, 2 minutes 3.66 seconds, suggested that the winner is no superstar. Speed figures — which take into account the condition of the track and the time — confirmed the weakness of the race. The Beyer Speed Figure of 97 was the lowest for any Derby since the ratings first appeared in the Daily Racing Form in 1992. This was not a unique assessment. The Ragozin Sheets gave California Chrome the poorest winning Derby number since 1974.

Andrew Beyer has been The Washington Post’s horse racing columnist since 1978 and is considered one of the leading experts on the subject. View Archive

In the media and the blogosphere, there have been howls that something must be wrong. How could the colt be so much slower than he was in his earlier victories at Santa Anita? How could so many horses behind him in the Derby earn below-normal figures, too? Many people speculated that the track had been maintained and watered insufficiently before the Derby, accounting for the slow time. “The track seemed dry,” wrote Byron King in the Daily Racing Form. “That was reflected in the significant dirt kickback. I say forget the time. I see no reason why . . . California Chrome isn’t as good as — if not better than — other recent Derby winners.”

This is not an academic issue; the quality of California Chrome’s Derby performance is a key issue in analyzing Saturday’s Preakness.

I believe there was no change in the Churchill Downs track during the day; the track superintendent insisted that the surface was watered sufficiently before the Derby. The Derby was slow because most of the horses were ill-suited to the 11 / 4-mile distance. After spurting to a clear lead on the final turn, California Chrome decelerated in the last furlong, even though jockey Victor Espinoza was urging him until the final strides. He scored by less than two lengths over a rival who had never won anything but a maiden race. Ten horses finished within 81 / 2 lengths of the winner. This was no dominating performance.

In ordinary circumstances, I would be eager to bet against California Chrome. Not only did he record a poor speed figure, he did so after benefiting from an easy trip. He sat behind two front-runners who were setting an honest (but not destructive) pace and shot past when they tired. He never had a straw in his path.

Yet it is difficult to make a solid case for any of his challengers at Pimlico. If California Chrome runs only slightly better than he did in the Derby (which he ought to do at the shorter distance), he’s apt to win as an odds-on favorite. This makes the Preakness an unattractive betting race, but I nevertheless have a plan for playing the trifecta.

The Preakness is filled with quick horses who regularly seize the early lead or fight for it — Social Inclusion, Bayern, Pablo Del Monte, General a Rod and California Chrome. The favorite surely will be sitting just behind the leaders, but any or all of the other four could get involved in a torrid pace that hampers them.

Accordingly, I am eliminating Pablo Del Monte, Social Inclusion and Bayern. The latter two will probably be the second and third choices in the wagering, and throwing them out will create some betting value.

Social Inclusion may possess more raw talent than any horse in the field; he scored a victory at Gulfstream Park so impressive that owner Ron Sanchez received — and rejected — an $8 million offer for the colt. But Social Inclusion hasn’t raced since tiring to finish third in the Wood Memorial Stakes six weeks ago. In the interim he suffered a minor foot injury. With only three career starts, he doesn’t have the seasoning for a race as demanding as the Preakness.

Bayern will get plenty of support; he’s trained by Bob Baffert. But all of the colt’s successes have come in races at a mile or less; he faded to third place in the 11 / 8-mile Arkansas Derby. The pace and the distance of the Preakness work against him. Dynamic Impact and Ride on Curlin are the most credible Preakness challengers. Dynamic Impact won the Illinois Derby on April 19 in a good effort, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 102. Ride on Curlin endured an absurd trip in the Derby as jockey Calvin Borel tried to come from last place in the field of 19. He rallied belatedly to finish seventh — not a bad effort under the circumstances. He could be helped by a hot Preakness pace.

General a Rod and Kid Cruz are marginal contenders. The former may be vying for the lead, but he is a seasoned and tenacious runner and he won’t give up easily. Kid Cruz has only won a couple of minor stakes at Pimlico, but he has a strong late kick and he will be rallying past some of the tired pacesetters.

My Preakness play is to use California Chrome, Dynamic Impact and Ride on Curlin in the top two positions in a trifecta, adding Kid Cruz and General a Rod in the third spot. A trifecta combination with a $1 unit will cost $18: The numbers are 1-3-10 with 1-3-10 with 1-2-3-7-10. If California Chrome wins as the favorite, the play should return a modest profit. But it could turn out to be lucrative if California Chrome’s low Derby speed figure portends a big surprise in the Preakness.

For more by Andrew Beyer, visit washingtonpost.com/beyer.

Continue reading
Comments
Show Comments