Scouts say a bad attitude should sink a top quarterback prospect regardless of his skills, but certain physical deficits — even significant ones — can be addressed or overcome. Drew Brees, taken in the second round of the 2001 draft, was considered too small coming out of Purdue; Joe Montana, a third-rounder in 1979, lacked arm strength; Dan Marino, taken 27th in the 1983 draft, showed no mobility.
The latter two players are in the Hall of Fame. Brees won a Super Bowl and is among the top quarterbacks in the league.
There are plenty of other examples. Brett Favre went in the second round in 1991. Aaron Rodgers was taken with the 24th pick in the 2005 draft. Tom Brady sat around until the sixth round of the 2000 draft — he was selected after quarterbacks Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn.
“The biggest thing scouts did during my time and my history with them is they overanalyzed,” Johnson said. “Let’s look at Tim Tebow; he’s kind of the topic of the year. . . . ‘What kind of decision-maker is he? Pretty good. Accuracy? Not very good. Size and speed are excellent; intelligence is very good; character off the charts. [But] when you go through all of that, you go back and say: ‘Is he a good player?’ ”
Before Sunday’s loss to the New England Patriots, Tebow — selected 25th overall in the 2010 draft — had led the Broncos to four straight come-from-behind victories and a 7-1 record.
In Johnson’s first year as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, team officials and scouts wrangled over whether to take Troy Aikman with the first overall pick, or Tony Mandarich — a 6-6, 315-pound offensive lineman who Sports Illustrated at the time called the “best offensive line prospect ever.”
Wooten, then the director of pro personnel for the Cowboys, said that Mandarich had higher grades for his position than Aikman did for his. Aikman had transferred to UCLA when he couldn’t win the starting job at Oklahoma.
“Our room was greatly divided,” Wooten said. “The position [some scouts] took was based on the measurements; Tony Mandarich was better at his position than Troy was at his position, and you generally take the one that has better numbers.
“I’d seen Troy and I’d seen Mandarich, and my thought was: This is the quarterback you need to have a championship team. This guy can take you to the next level.”
Johnson made the ultimate call, and the Cowboys selected Aikman first overall. The Green Bay Packers took Mandarich at No. 2. Aikman led Dallas to three Super Bowl titles and was selected to six Pro Bowls. Mandarich succumbed to drug and alcohol addiction and never met expectations.
Tricks of the trade
Correctly assessing intangible traits can require detective-like methods, team officials say. Personal interviews — with the players and those around him — can offer more critical information than anything gained on a strength chart or even the Wonderlic intelligence exam given to all NFL prospects. Wooten said he relied on two main tricks: talking to student trainers, especially female ones, and listening for certain cues from collegiate coaches.
“The student trainers, particularly the girls, you talk to them,” Wooten said. “What kind of guy is this? If she gives him a rave report, you got the right guy. If she says, ‘Oh, he’s okay. . .’ She doesn’t want to say anything bad, [but] . . .the way she answers gives you great insight.”
Wooten said he also shied away from players considered unmotivated because they weren’t yet on an NFL team’s payroll.
“You inevitably hear a coach say to you, ‘When he starts getting paid, it’s going to be different,’ ” Wooten said. “That should send a red flag. I have been around long enough to know that money doesn’t make players better. If anything, it makes them worse.”
Despite the history, the red flags and the warning signs, mistakes are likely to continue. In 19 of the 41 drafts held since 1970, quarterbacks were selected with the first overall pick. Four quarterbacks — Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder — were picked in the first round this past spring.
Three have started. Overall No. 1 Newton has an 82.3 quarterback rating, 15th best in the NFL and just behind Tebow, who has an 83.6 rating. Ponder is 28th at 72.3 and Gabbert is 32nd at 65.6.
Then there’s Andy Dalton, selected in the second round by the Cincinnati Bengals. Some say he’s been the best of the group. He’s ranked 18th, at 81.0.
“Because the position is so critical, teams do reach at the quarterback position,” Casserly said. “If you don’t have one, you can’t play.”
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