BEIJING — The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has kindled anxiety among the country’s neighbors and beyond about the unpredictable nature of the succession in the isolated, nuclear-armed country.
But China in particular has expressed hope that the sudden and unexpected leadership transition in Pyongyang might offer an opportunity for North Korea to pursue desperately needed reform of its dysfunctional economic system.
As his people wept, world leaders reacted to the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. China expressed shock and sent condolences, while the White House and the State Department said they were monitoring the situation closely. (Dec. 19)
China sent troops to fight alongside North Koreans during the Korean War, and Mao Zedong once said that the two neighbors’ relationship was “as close as lips and teeth.” But although China remains Pyongyang’s principal ally and benefactor, its leaders have more recently pressed the North to embrace economic reforms.
In contrast to China, which since 1979 has pursued a policy of economic liberalization and opening to the outside world, North Korea has remained mired in a 1950s-style Stalinist system that has brought widespread poverty, food shortages and a shrinking industrial base.
“If the North Korean regime hopes to survive, they must make some changes,” said Zhu Feng, an international studies professor at Peking University.
Zhu said the transfer of power to Kim’s son Kim Jong Eun might subject the new leader to greater pressure for reform.
“Right now, North Koreans lack food and clothing,” Zhu said. “In such a society, the death of the old leader will have a huge impact on society and cause people to reflect and change their ideas.”
Other experts here said it would be wise for the United States and South Korea in particular to move cautiously and avoid provoking hard-line forces in the North.
“I’m optimistic about the future of North Korea,” said Shi Yuanhua, director of the Korean Studies Center at Fudan University in Shanghai. “Compared to his father, Kim Jong Eun has more motivation to reform, considering his background abroad and his age.
“But if the U.S., Japan and South Korea are still waiting for North Korea to collapse one day, then the opening and reform process will be more difficult,” he said.
In the hours after Kim Jong Il’s death was announced Monday, South Korea placed all its government officials on emergency-response status and called a National Security Council meeting at the Blue House, its presidential palace.
In Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda canceled a speech minutes after receiving the broadcast news from Pyongyang, then called a meeting of his crisis-management team.
Stocks fell across Asia on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei closed down 1.3 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.2 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged 5 percent, then recovered slightly to close down 3.4 percent. The South Korean currency, the won, fell 1.6 percent against the dollar. Markets in Europe were trading in positive territory.
In London, British Foreign Secretary William Hague urged North Korea’s government to reduce the country’s isolation and return to the nuclear disarmament negotiations known as the six-party talks.
“The people of North Korea are in official mourning after the death of Kim Jong Il. We understand this is a difficult time for them,” Hague said in a statement. “We hope that their new leadership will recognize that engagement with the international community offers the best prospect of improving the lives of ordinary North Korean people.”
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