China’s Hu seeks to exert influence long after he leaves power

A consensus-driven style

Much of Hu’s perceived weakness is a result of the difficult hand he was dealt when he took over as the top leader in 2002.

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Jiang was so successful at consolidating power during his last days in office that at least five of the nine members of the Standing Committee were thought to be his strong allies. Jiang refused to give up his chairmanship of China’s military until Hu and others forced him out two years into Hu’s presidency.

“The best way to describe Jiang’s style is like a gangster,” said one party intellectual with close ties to senior officials from Jiang’s era. “He believed in an eye for an eye, but also in the flip side as well, returning favor for favor. That’s how he accumulated so much influence.”

By comparison, Hu rose quickly within the Communist Party bureaucracy in part by cultivating a reputation as studious and noncombative. At 39, he became the youngest at the time to enter the Central Committee, and at 43, the youngest provincial party secretary.

Surrounded by Jiang loyalists throughout his presidency, Hu adopted a consensus-driven leadership style, acting more to get folks on the same page than as a visionary, party analysts said.

“He is a manager who likes to tweak the machine. It is not in his nature to overhaul the whole thing,” said one former official, pointing to Hu’s training as a hydrology engineer.

Hu’s cautious approach, some experts say, has hindered his influence. Asked for his accomplishments, party members point almost reflexively to the unbridled economic growth of the past decade. A few mention better relations with Taiwan and the military’s expansion. When asked about the problems Hu leaves behind, the responses grow longer and more explicit.

“Ten years ago, when he took power, everybody was wondering what kind of leader Hu would be,” said David Shambaugh, an expert on Chinese affairs at George Washington University. “Now we know the answer. He is an arch-conservative, cautious, risk-averse, stability-obsessed apparatchik.”

Xi Jinping’s role

In many ways, the biggest factors in the future influence of Hu and Jiang will be Xi and his ability to quickly establish his own base of power.

Xi, though a princeling and someone Jiang supported, does not easily fit into any political camp. But many believe he will start his tenure with advantages that neither of his predecessors possessed — deep party connections nurtured through family and a growing sense that the country is in desperate need of reform.

“You have so many situations that now require proactive decision-making, and you have all the recent scandals and crises making many in the party eager to turn the page,” said Robert Kuhn, a businessman with ties to senior Chinese leaders.

“Ironically, because of that, Xi may actually be able to consolidate authority to get things done much faster than either Hu or Jiang in their first days.”

Others, however, say that if the past is any indication, Xi’s predecessors will not give up their influence easily.

“It is a natural thing when you have been the one in charge all along,” one party intellectual said. “It’s a hard habit to give up, especially in Chinese politics.”

Liu Liu and Zhang Jie contributed to this report.