The landscape here is awe-inspiringly beautiful, nearly everyone agrees, and economic development is vital to long-term peace. Then skepticism sets in. Will tourists feel safe? So far this year, 574 violent deaths have been reported in the North Caucasus. Last year, terrorists killed three Russian tourists near Mount Elbrus, at 18,510 feet Europe’s tallest mountain, where a small ski area has operated for years.
Much of the answer probably depends on the success of the 2014 Winter Olympics, which Russia is hosting in Sochi, on the Black Sea to the west. Islamists and grievance-bearing ethnic groups could attempt disruptions. Circassians, for one, want Russia to acknowledge czarist-era genocide against them in Sochi. Officials are counting on a well-run Games to stir up interest in Russian skiing and reassure vacationers.
The beach resorts would lie in the predominantly Muslim region of Dagestan, where police and militants regularly exchange gunfire. In July, a bomb was found on the beach in Makhachkala, the region’s capital, but was defused before it exploded. The attack came two years after another bomb maimed a woman on the same beach.
Russian leaders, from Vladimir Putin on down, support increased tourism and have allotted the government-sponsored Northern Caucasus Resorts $2 billion to begin development and seek investors. Foreign experts have been brought in to help, including Gernot Leitner, an energetic Austrian architect, skier and sports professional who played on the Austrian national volleyball team and spent eight years on the beach volleyball circuit.
“Only the Rocky Mountains are comparable with the North Caucasus,” said Leitner, who has skied for days on end in the region to select trails and sites for hotels and chalets. He was referring to the geography, not the infrastructure. Roads are narrow and rutted, hotels few. “It’s going to be nice. I believe in it.”
The resorts will take several years to build — roads, power grids and sewers have to be put in, airports constructed or expanded, and workers trained in the tourist business. Supply chains are nonexistent. But Leitner, chief executive of Masterconcept Consultants, said Russia will be 20 percent middle class by 2020.
“That means 30 million people with money to spend on vacations,” he said.
Farmland to ski country?
The nearest airport to Arkhyz is Mineralnye Vody, about 125 miles away on roads that wind through mostly Muslim villages and some Christian, where cows or herds of horses stop traffic in the evening as they return from grazing. In the last days of fall, elderly women sit outside the low brick or stone walls that surround their houses, soaking the last of the sun’s warm rays into their bones. The wood is chopped, the hay gathered as winter approaches. Along the roadside, people sell pumpkins, jars of honey, canned berries and pickled mushrooms and a thick mint-and-pine-infused syrup said to ward off the flu.