Nothing untoward has been seen there so far, and U.S. officials say that such an attack is unlikely and would be difficult to carry out.
But the chemicals have nonetheless been a focus of concern by former Libyan officials and some European leaders who have worried that the mercurial leader could seek to drain the tanks and either use the gas to terrorize the city of Benghazi, the last large rebel stronghold, or try to draw on the stockpile as part of a desperate move to stay in power.
Sounds of alarm
The country’s former ambassador to the United Nations, Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham, who renounced the Tripoli government last month, said in Washington a week ago that “I do expect that he’s going to attack Benghazi with chemical weapons” if the fighting eventually reaches there.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned at a European Union summit March 11 that his government would back “targeted” actions — a euphemism for attacks on Gaddafi’s best military forces, if not the leader himself — if Gaddafi authorized the use of the gas. The British government has suggested it would support such a retaliation.
The expressions of rising alarm caused the head of the United Nations’ Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the Hague-based group overseeing Libya’s voluntary destruction of the gas, to demand assurances from Libya, also on March 11, that its mustard gas stocks remain secure and would not be used.
Libya’s ambassador to the group, Ahmed Hassan Ahmed Walid, a military officer trained by Russia and Serbia in chemical protection, responded that “the situation regarding the chemical weapons to be destroyed remains unchanged and under control,” according to an OPCW statement.
Several U.S. officials said the site is being closely watched. One official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, added that military contingency plans have been prepared to try to destroy the stockpile if necessary.
“There are lots of rational reasons why Gaddafi could decide not to use them — not the least of which is the absence of a reliable and safe delivery method — but we all know that rational decision-making is not always the hallmark of dictators,” another U.S. official said. “It will come down to a decision by one man on how to proceed.”
Libya until recently had been on track to destroy the remaining stock by itself before May 15 at the Rughawa site, more than 130 miles south of Sirte, Gaddafi’s birthplace. The canisters presently hold about half of the arsenal the government declared it had in 2004, in a general renunciation of its weapons of mass destruction under heavy U.S. and British pressure.