Once considered unthinkable, that possibility — a sovereign default inside a major world currency zone — is now a central facet of the planning among European and IMF officials, who are trying to both keep Greece afloat and buffer the broader regional economy against the chance that they may not succeed.
A Greek default would have unpredictable consequences for the world economy. The turmoil in Europe has been cited by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner as a chief concern for the U.S. economy. Trade and the health of U.S. banks with large European ties could all suffer if Europe slips into a new recession, as some analysts project.
But the shock would be minimized if it was clear that European banks maintained large enough stores of capital — cash and other highly liquid assets — to absorb losses on their Greek bonds and any aftershocks that might follow a default.
The effort to contain Greece’s financial problems led to a nationwide strike on Wednesday, as thousands of Greek workers protested the government’s austerity measures and paralyzed the country’s transportation system.
Some banks have already begun writing down the value of their Greek holdings, and a July plan for the country envisions cutting the value of Greece’s debt by about 21 percent.
Merkel, the IMF and others now acknowledge that the July plan may not provide enough help for a Greek economy that is slipping further into recession, amid sometimes intense riots and a growing sense of social upheaval.
Alongside extra billions of dollars in public aid from the IMF and Europe, private banks may have to take an even larger hit to stabilize Greece’s finances.
“If there is a common view that banks aren’t sufficiently capitalized for the current market condition,” a system to aid them should be set up, Merkel said in Brussels on Wednesday after meeting with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. She urged that the plan be developed quickly.
The IMF on Wednesday urged action as well. IMF Europe division head Antonio Borges said at a news conference in Brussels that a collapse of confidence in Europe’s economy, bank health and crisis management was undercutting growth.
A key step in restoring trust, he said, would be a quick and regionwide capital infusion.
The IMF contends that banks in the euro area face potential losses of $300 billion on their holdings of Greek and other government debt that is now considered a “high credit risk.”
Those losses may never materialize, and European bankers insist that their institutions are on the whole financially sound.
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