Hugo Chavez’s long absence spurs succession talk in Venezuela

“The president is a strong man,” his brother told state television.

The president’s political allies have been irritated by the speculation about Chavez’s illness in Venezuela’s mainstream news media and by the opposition, characterizing it as an effort to sow discord.

But the president’s adversaries question both the secrecy surrounding his prolonged absence and the legality of Chavez governing from Cuba.

“You cannot run a country via Twitter,” said Antonio Ledezma, the mayor of Caracas and one of Chavez’s most determined political foes. He said that in this “hour of confusion” Venezuelans are asking themselves who is legally in charge.

The Venezuelan constitution says the vice president would take the president’s place during a “temporary” absence. But Vice President Elias Jaua rejected the demands of some government foes that he be sworn in on an interim basis.

The president’s illness has also raised questions about who would replace Chavez should his health further deteriorate. The most powerful men at his side are Jaua, the congressman Diosdado Cabello, Maduro the foreign minister and a former vice president, Jose Vicente Rangel.

But Luis Vicente Leon, who heads the Datanalisis polling firm and has been a close observer of the government, said that no one with Chavez’s charisma or ability to unite a broad political base has ever emerged.

“I don’t think Chavez has thought that something like this would ever happen,” Leon said by phone from Caracas. “Chavez has overshadowed everyone in his movement. And he has not permitted that other independent-minded leaders rise up.”

Leon, however, said that he believed that only a terminal illness would keep Chavez out of next year’s presidential race, when the former army paratrooper plans to run for his third six-year term. Leon, though, said that the infirmity that has sidelined Chavez may not help his image on the campaign trail.

“Remember, Chavez is a charismatic man and he wants to show he can overcome all adversity,” Leon said. “And an illness makes him seem more human, more vulnerable, and that is not good for a leader like Chavez.”

Special correspondent Adam Liebendorfer contributed to this report.

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