The North Korean sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan last year may have been staged to give the younger Kim command experience and military credentials before his promotion to four-star general and vice chair of the powerful North Korean National Defense Commission. Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il were experienced at driving crises like the Cheonan to the edge of war for maximum leverage. None of North Korea’s neighbors are confident, however, that the younger Kim knows how to play the same dangerous game without crossing the line.
And whereas Kim Jong Il had the command authority to determine when and how to play diplomacy vs. provocations with respect to the nuclear program, the same may not be true of Kim Jong Eun and his uncle. They will be under enormous internal pressure to stay on schedule for the nuclear and missile development programs and to respond aggressively to international pressures or sanctions. For all the propaganda behind the younger Kim’s credentials as a “Great General,” the real generals will be tempted to shape and interpret the intent of the inexperienced Kim the same way Japan’s generals divined Emperor Hirohito’s words in the years before Pearl Harbor. Jang Song Taek will hold the real authority but not the aura of the two elder Kims.
Video
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il lies in state as his son and apparent successor Kim Jong Eun pays his respects. (Dec. 20)
If international and domestic turbulence starts pulling apart the cohesion of the leadership structure in Pyongyang, it could bring about the liberation of 23 million oppressed North Koreans and unification with a prosperous and democratic South. Sudden collapse would also bring great peril. Consider how intensely the West worries about the surface-to-air missiles that went missing when Moammar Gaddafi was toppled in Libya. In North Korea, we would have to worry about nuclear weapons’ technology, fissile material, massive chemical and biological arsenals and more than a million men under arms — all in a regime with close ties to criminal syndicates around the world.
The Obama administration therefore has reasons for focusing on stability in its approach to Pyongyang, but that should not get in the way of necessary planning and coordination with our allies and other powers in the region on how we would respond to the regime’s demise. At this point, the downside risks associated with mismanagement of the collapse of the North and unification of the peninsula outweigh any risk that intensified preparations might pose to our diplomatic outreach to the North.
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