U.S. officials said the video may reflect Zawahiri’s awareness of his own shortcomings. “If he has an accurate measure of his own popularity, he would realize he’s the wrong man for the job,” said the senior U.S. counterterrorism official. “Most of the organization has complained about him.”
For that reason, much of the pressure of rebuilding may fall to his lieutenant, Libi, who is considered a more dynamic figure, a religious scholar who escaped from U.S. detention before beginning his rapid rise through al-Qaeda’s depleted ranks.
Libi is thought to be in his late 30s and has attracted a following among militants through a series of videos in which he has recounted his escape from the U.S. prison at Bagram air base in 2005, as well as his interpretation of world events.
His latest, issued Oct. 18, urged Algerians to revolt against a government that “opened your country to the bastards of the West to enjoy your resources, and made your honorable children circle the Earth asking people for alms,” according to a translation by the Site Intelligence Group.
Libi spent five years as a religious student in Mauritania in the 1990s, giving him credentials on religious matters that few in al-Qaeda can match. His operational experience includes serving as a field commander for al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Because of Libi’s stature and communication skills, Jarret Brachman, a former CIA analyst who is a professor of security studies at North Dakota State University, described him as al-Qaeda’s “last best hope for any global resurgence.”
Although Zawahiri and Libi have long been top targets of the CIA, the agency’s pursuit has intensified as other names have been crossed off the agency’s kill list. Among them was Atiyah abd al-Rahman, who communicated regularly with bin Laden, rose to No. 2 in the organization and served as its day-to-day operational chief until he was killed in an August drone strike.
U.S. officials said that al-Qaeda’s leaders in Pakistan still communicate with regional affiliates — including the one in Yemen — but that the franchises often shrug off exhortations that don’t fit into their plans.
Yemen, Iran and remote corners of Afghanistan have been eyed as potential replacements for the endangered haven in Pakistan, officials said. “The guys who are closer to the explosions are thinking about it more than the guys who aren’t,” the senior U.S. counterterrorism official said. “No one thinks Zawahiri would move. He’s too prominent. Too settled. Too old.”
Staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
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