Pillar said bin Laden’s demise would “have far more significance in the way that we in the United States and the West react to it than how violent Islamists will be going about their business.”
Most al-Qaeda-related activity in recent years “has been initiated away from the center, on the periphery,” Pillar said. “To the extent there have been more meaningful operational links in recent years, it has been al-Qaeda in Yemen more than anyone else.”
Hillary Rodham Clinton held a press conference in Washington, D.C., to express the significance of Osama bin Laden's death and the continued fight against terrorism. (May 2)
Like other analysts, Pillar said he anticipated an upsurge of terrorist violence in the short term. “I’d attribute that now to an extra incentive to show that the movement is still alive and kicking and the death of this most prominent figure has not meant the death of al-Qaeda.”
As a result, the United States is likely to continue for some time to employ the same tools — drone strikes and multilayered intelligence-gathering efforts — that have been used to increase pressure on al-Qaeda in Pakistan and played a critical role in locating bin Laden more than a decade after he became the main focus of the CIA hunt.
U.S. intelligence officials think that al-Qaeda’s core leadership in Pakistan had been crippled by a relentless campaign of drone strikes over the past three years.
After watching al-Qaeda rebuild its infrastructure in the tribal region of northwest Pakistan, including new training camps and increased recruiting, the Bush administration authorized a dramatic increase in drone strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban targets.
The use of drone attacks increased still further under Obama. The number of drone strikes in Pakistan increased from five in 2007 to 35 the next year. In 2010, nearly 120 strikes were reported, according to a tally by the Long War Journal Web site.
Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., in an assessment of global threats against the United States in February, said the campaign had “greatly weakened al-Qaeda’s core capabilities, including operations training and propaganda.” U.S. officials concluded that, while the group remained capable of carrying out attacks, it was probably unable to organize a Sept. 11-style strike on the West.
But Clapper said al-Qaeda chapters elsewhere — particularly in Yemen and North Africa — continued to pose a serious threat.
“We’re especially focused on al-Qaeda's resolve to recruit Americans and to spawn affiliate groups, most notably its chapter in the Arabian Peninsula,” Clapper said.
Post staff writer Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.
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