Domestic politics shaping the international debate over a nuclear Iran

Domestic politics can make all the difference when it comes to the idea of taking military action against Iran’s nuclear program. Just look at the elections in the United States, Israel or even Iran.

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The latest example is the interview Monday with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak by the Daily Telegraph in Britain. He said a step in Iran reported recently “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth [meaning an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities] by eight to 10 months.”

Barak was referring to the finding released Aug. 30 by the International Atomic Energy Agency that between mid-December 2011 and mid-August 2012, Tehran had converted almost half of its stock of uranium enriched to 20 percent, its most dangerous type, into a “peaceful” form that can’t be used for nuclear weapons.

Barak gave several explanations for Iran’s actions, including that “it could probably be a diplomatic gambit that they have launched in order to avoid this issue culminating before the American election, just to gain some time.”

There may be some truth to that. The next IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not due until mid-November, but diplomats said last week that Iran had added more than 600 centrifuges to its underground facility at Fordow. It eventually will have 3,000. They are not yet operational, the report said.

A former prime minister and chief of the Israel Defense Forces, Barak has slowly moved away from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the August IAEA report. Netanyahu’s repeated threats to attack Iran have divided Israelis, though he has recently dropped such rhetoric.

Both he and Barak are looking at Israel’s next parliamentary elections, which Netanyahu set for Jan. 22. The prime minister said he moved the date from next October because he couldn’t pass “a sensible budget.”

But another issue was Barak’s concern that Netanyahu would hit Iran without U.S. support.

Netanyahu’s announcement last week that he was aligning his Likud Party with the more conservative party of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was considered a way to free himself of the need for Barak’s support. On Monday he called the move “essential” and said Lieberman could become defense minister.

Lieberman has advocated Israel make its own decision on Iran, saying in February that it is none of Washington’s business. In August, he said on Israeli television that he favored hitting Iran back in 2001 and still does.

Netanyahu’s coalition may force centrist groups to unite in opposition. Barak’s comments may help him join that grouping, though he still believes only a military attack will stop — even temporarily — Iran seeking a nuclear weapon. “If no one acts, we will have to contemplate action,” he said Monday.

Iran’s parliamentary elections in March saw candidates supporting the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the clerical establishment gain almost three-quarters of the 290 seats. It was a clear defeat for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A presidential election is set for June, but there’s speculation it may not happen because Khamenei favors eliminating the office in favor of parliament-elected prime minister.