Russia’s continued standoff with Belarus signals serious trouble in bilateral relations and highlights problems within the CSTO
The fight between Russia and Belarus seems to have no end. The latest round started with Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicting a grim future for the Belarusian economy and Russia’s unwillingness to make loans in foreign currency to its neighbor and closest strategic ally. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko responded by attacking Kudrin and the Russian government, and even taking a thinly veiled shot at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin himself while instructing his government to keep out of Russia and look for better fortunes elsewhere.
The Russian reaction came rather sooner than later, when a ban was imposed on imports of milk products from Belarus, further damaging an already struggling economy. For Belarus the alliance with Russia is more about the economy, while Russia has more of a political interest in its Western neighbor. Lukashenko decided to act on that and ignored the June 14 summit of the CSTO, a Russian-dominated strategic alliance comprised of seven former Soviet states, predominantly located in Central Asia.
Lukashenko has been known for his habit of putting pressure on Russia to get more economic benefits for his country, which exists in a mild state of self-imposed isolation in Europe and has faced heavy criticism for its lack of democracy and the authoritarian style of its government. Russian protection and economic cooperation was thus key to the survival of Lukashenko’s regime.
Lukashenko has two possible ways out; either to make peace with Russia or to rely on international financial institutions, in which case he would see Belarus’ proclaimed sovereignty, and his own political influence, diminished. “The EU made it clear that they would not aid Lukashenko, while the World Bank would be happy to do that. The Belarusian economy would become addicted to foreign aid and then we wouldn’t be talking about any sovereignty. It’s also very likely that Lukashenko’s tenure could then slowly come to its end,” said Mukhin.
The bitter split between Russia and Belarus has also exposed the problems that exist within the CSTO, an organization initially set up mostly to support the notion that Russia still dominates the former Soviet region strategically and economically. While Belarus ignored the summit completely, Uzbekistan refused to sign the joint forces agreement unless changes are made.
“The CSTO’s problem is the lack of consensus between its members. If you want to be a powerful influential global organization the members have to be consolidated, but that’s something we aren’t seeing here. There is no doubt we can’t even be talking about any rivalry to NATO; the CSTO is more of a regional, or I’d even say local, organization,” said Eugenia Voiko, a foreign policy expert at the Center of Political Trends.
The adjustment of the member countries’ military doctrines to emphasize the danger of local military skirmishes and the new joint forces initiative could also mean that the CSTO is gaining some practical meaning, as opposed to just being little more than a formal strategic alliance. “This also demonstrated that the organization did not intend to engage in any competition with NATO, strengthening their own political stance and stripping NATO of an excuse to expand its military presence in certain regions,” said Mukhin.
