The Paper Chase Slows Down, Here and Nationally

Think there are too many lawyers? Tired of finding that every other person you meet has a law degree?

Well, relief is on the way.

Law school applications are dropping, precipitously at some schools, and have been for the past five years. As of last month, slightly more than 69,000 people had applied to the nation's law schools, down 10 percent from last year and a whopping 27 percent from the peak year of 1991, according to the Law School Admissions Council.

Even in Washington, a mecca for lawyers and law students, as of May 31 applications were down 6.8 percent from the previous year at the city's six law schools, the council reported. The Philadelphia-based organization surveys 178 law schools in the United States. (Because each person may apply to more than one school, the number of applicants and applications differ.)

"Around here, people are saying, `It was up with `L.A. Law,' down with O.J. law,' " quipped Jamin Raskin, associate dean at American University's Washington College of Law.

While Raskin acknowledges he's being flip, his comment carries some truth. Law school applications ballooned in the late 1980s, when the popular TV series, "L.A. Law," was glamorizing a profession in which big law firms vied for freshly minted lawyers. They started many of them at salaries of $85,000 a year.

But just as the number of law school applicants peaked at more than 94,000 in the 1990-91 season, the profession was hit by a downturn.

New York and other big-city firms, bloated from the mergers-and-acquisitions craze of the 1980s, suddenly found themselves with too many lawyers. Associate layoffs hit New York and Boston first, then spread to other large cities.

Washington firms weathered that crisis by controlling costs and holding down hiring, but suffered few cutbacks. Those came later, as the local real estate market, for instance, crashed in the mid-'90s and forced some mid-sized firms out of business.

But in the fall of 1990, firms began to cut back on their recruiting at law schools, even at top schools such as Georgetown and Harvard. "It was a true recession," said Philip Shelton, executive director of the Law School Admissions Council. Hiring rates, which measure the number of law graduates hired six months after graduation, dropped to 80 percent, from 95 percent in the late 1980s, Shelton said.

Prospective students also were turned off by a fall-off "in the quality of life, especially at some of the larger firms" and publicity about "firms imploding, partners leaving or angry exchanges," said Jack Friedenthal, dean of George Washington University National Law School.

Andy Cornblatt, dean of admissions at Georgetown University Law Center, proffered this reason for the decline: "the overall trashing of lawyers."

Remember the surge of popularity Vice President Dan Quayle enjoyed when he slammed lawyers at an American Bar Association convention in 1991? And who could forget the spate of joke books -- "What to Do With a Dead Lawyer," or "Skid Marks," which drew its title from the alleged difference between a skunk and a lawyer found squashed on a highway: There were skids marks where the car tried to miss the skunk.

As the criticism grew louder and harsher, reaching its zenith during the O.J. Simpson trial last year, law lost even more of its luster.

But George Braxton, admissions director at Catholic University's Columbus School of Law, takes a contrarian view. He asserts that there's a positive reason for the decline.

"We are in a better economy . . . and the placement rate for new college graduates is higher than it has been any time in this decade," Braxton said. The contingent of students who once opted for law school because they couldn't find jobs has diminished, he said.

More students also are interested in business and medicine, he said. "I don't think [the decline] necessarily reflects negatively on the law."

While Shelton, of the admissions council, believes all these theories have some validity, he thinks the best explanation is simply that the peak was "outrageously high" and applicant levels, inevitably, had to drop back. The applicant surge that climaxed in 1991, he said, was simply "way outside the realistic employment opportunity range" for lawyers.

When the decline came, it hit everywhere.

Tulane University Law School in New Orleans, for instance, saw a 27 percent drop in applicants since last year, according to Associate Dean Susan Krinsky. Harvard Law School, which peaked in 1989-90 at 8,516 applicants, has since roller-coastered. But applications have dropped in the past two years, down 2 percent to 6,640 for the 1996 entering class, according to Todd Morton, associate director of admissions.

Nor has Washington been immune.

Georgetown, which gets more applications than any school in the nation, has received about 7,500 for this fall -- down about 5 percent from last year, Cornblatt said. But the school experienced its steepest decline a year earlier, he said.

"Schools take their hits at different times in the process," Cornblatt said.

American University's law school has 4,588 applications so far, down about 10 percent, Raskin said. Howard University Law School saw a sharper decline, about 18 percent since last year, to 1,297. But that's coming off its two best years for applicants, said spokesman Alan Hermesch.

Catholic's law school also experienced a sharp decline. Its 2,285 applications represent a 17 percent drop since last year, Braxton said. But Catholic's part-time evening program accounted for much of that decrease, added Braxton, who believes the strengthening economy has kept many workers from returning to school seeking second careers.

At George Washington, Assistant Dean Robert Stanek expects to finish close to or perhaps a little ahead of last year's 6,470 applications by the school's July 1 deadline. The school had a big drop in 1995, with applications dropping about 16 percent from the prior year, and Stanek believes it's now "balancing out a bit."

Law school officials at the University of the District of Columbia did not return a reporter's call.

Some academicians put a positive spin on the change.

"I am not going to sit here and say, `Woe is us,' " said Georgetown's Cornblatt. "It is not a horrible thing. We have separated people who were applying to law school by default or weren't as motivated and serious as applicants we have now, at least at Georgetown. I don't feel unhappy . . . or terrified about this."

That's fortunate, as many think the decline will continue.

Many undergraduates still are unaware of the difficulty of turning a law degree into a job as a lawyer, or they believe they will be the exceptions, said Jane Hopkins Carey, executive director of Georgetown's Career Education Center, which counsels undergraduates. That information still is trickling down to students, she said, and it's up to career counselors to "give them a reality check."

"I don't expect ever to see in my lifetime nearly 100,000" people applying to law school in one year, Shelton added. "But how far down we will go, I just don't know."