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The College Graduate Labor Force in 1996
    In 1996, about 33 million college graduates were employed in the United States. They worked in a wide range of occupations, but the majority were found in two groups - professional specialty occupations and executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. (See chart I). These 2 groups accounted for two-thirds of college-level employment, with professional specialty occupations providing nearly 14 million jobs and executive, administrative, and managerial occupations supplying another 8.4 million. Engineer, registered nurse, lawyer, teacher, physician, and social worker were among the professional specialty occupations that supplied the most jobs for college-graduates. The executive, administrative, and managerial occupations employing the largest number of college-graduates were accountant and auditor; marketing, advertising, and public relations manager; medical and health manager; and administrators and officials in public administration.

    The balance of the remaining 33 million employed college graduates - about 10 million - were scattered among other occupational groups in 1996. About 3.8 million worked in marketing and sales occupations, where they held jobs such as nonretail commodity sales representatives; first-line supervisors and managers; real estate agents, brokers, and appraisers; and insurance sales agents. Administrative support occupations accounted for an additional 2.6 million workers. Occupations in this group include secretaries; bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing, clerks; clerical supervisors and managers; and insurance claims processing workers. The remaining college graduates worked primarily as blue-collar worker supervisors, farm managers, and police or detectives.

    Although all of those workers have college degrees, not all were employed in college-level jobs. About 5.6 million, or 17 percent, of them were employed in jobs that did not require a college degree. Many were in administrative support, retail sales, and service occupations, but over a million of these workers were also in production and craft occupations.

Projected Entrants with College Degrees
    The most important group of college degree holders to enter the labor market each year is recent college graduates. According to NCES, about 1.19 million people were awarded bachelor's degrees in 1996. The number of college degree earners grew about 20 percent between 1986 and 1996, in spite of a decline in the traditional college-age population of 18 to 24-year-olds over most of the period. This increase in degree earners was primarily due to growing enrollments of women and of older people.

Each year between 1996 and 2006, recent college graduates and other college-educated entrants will make up an estimated 1.38 million college graduates entering the labor force. This will represent an increase of about 6 percent over the 1.3 million who entered the labor force annually during the previous decade.

    In contrast, the Census Bureau projects growth in the college-age population between 1997 and 2000 while NCES projects a decline in the number of bachelor's degrees awarded over the same period. The number of bachelor's degree recipients is expected to resume growth in 2001 (See chart 2). In fact, NCES projects the average number of degree earners each year between 1996 and 2006 will increase to about 1.19 million, up slightly from the 1.10 million recipients annually over the previous 10-year period. Nearly all of this growth is expected to be accounted for by women, who will comprise about 58 percent of all bachelor's degree earners by the year 2006. NCES estimates the number of men receiving bachelor's degrees each year will remain fairly constant between 1996 and 2006.

    However, not all of these college graduates will join the labor force during the 1996-2006 period. Some will enter graduate school, start a family, or take a break for various reasons. NCES projects 1.19 million bachelor's degrees will be awarded between 1996 and 2006, a number similar to its projection for the previous decade. Of those recipients, BLS estimates about 1.15 million, or 97 percent, will enter the labor market. This figure is derived from historical patterns of labor force participation among recent college graduates.

    In addition to recent college graduates, BLS projects that about 230,000 other degree holders will enter the labor force each year between 1996 and 2006. This number is based on comparisons between historical growth in the college educated labor force and the annual number of college graduates. These other entrants come from a variety of sources, including recently discharged military personnel, college-educated immigrants, and college degree holders returning to the labor force after a long absence. Not included in this group, however, are college graduates who are unemployed or who hold noncollege-level jobs and may be looking for college-level jobs. It is possible that some of these jobseekers might eventually compete with other college graduates in the labor market.

    Each year between 1996 and 2006, recent college graduates and other college-educated entrants will make up an estimated 1.38 million college graduates entering the labor force. This will represent an increase of about 6 percent over the 1.3 million who entered the labor force annually during the previous decade.

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