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The Outlook for College Graduates by Mark Mittelhauser page 3
Projected Job Openings, 1996-2006
Employment in college-level jobs, 1996,
projected 2006,
Employment growth. The largest source of new college-level job openings between 1996 and 2006 will continue to be employment growth. Openings due to growth are expected to average 750,000 each year over this 10-year period, accounting for about two-thirds of all college-level openings. As indicated above, the overall growth of the economy is a major determinant of college-level openings resulting from employment growth. Because BLS projects overall annual employment growth to slow from 1.7 percent over the 1986-90 period to 1.3 percent between 1996 and 2006, growth is projected to provide about 75,000 fewer college-level jobs each year during the 1996-2006 period than it did between 1986 and 1996. The projected slowdown in employment growth is largely due to slower labor force growth, which BLS estimates will decline from 14 percent between 1986 and 1996 to about 11 percent between 1996 and 2006. This slowing in labor force growth reflects demographic trends. As workers in the baby-boom population begin to retire and the smaller population of the "baby bust" generation enters the labor market, overall labor force growth will slow. One result of these trends is a projected decline of nearly 3 million in the number of 25- to 34-year-olds between 1996 and 2006. Labor force growth is also influenced by the labor force participation rate of the working-age population. This rate is expected to continue to grow among women, although at a slower rate than in the previous 10 years, while the labor force participation rate of men is projected to continue to decline for all groups under age 45.
The projected slowing of employment growth is expected to have less impact on the college-educated labor force than on other workers in the economy, as growth in college-level jobs is projected to continue outpacing the growth of jobs which typically require lower levels of education. College-level jobs are expected to increase by 27 percent between 1996 and 2006, much faster than the 14 percent expected for all workers (See table). As a result, the proportion of college-level jobs relative to all jobs in the economy is expected to rise from around 21 percent in 1996 to slightly over 23 percent in 2006. One reason college graduates will fare better than workers in other educational groups is the occupational distribution of growth. The major occupational groups that provide college-level jobs are expected to grow more rapidly than the 14-percent increase in employment for the economy as a whole. Professional specialty occupations, the largest source of college-level jobs, will be the fastest growing occupational group including both college- and noncollege-level jobs. In contrast, the occupational groups expected to grow more slowly than average - agricultural, craft and other production, and administrative support occupations - employ a relatively small share of college graduates.
As a result of these trends, professional specialty occupations will continue to add more college-level jobs over the projection period than any other occupational group (See chart 3). In fact, between 1996 and 2006, professional specialty occupations will account for more than half of all college-level openings due to growth - about 400,000 jobs each year. The occupations that will add the most jobs in this group are computer engineers, computer scientists, and systems analysts. These occupations are expected to be among the fastest growing in the economy. In fact, their combined occupational employment is expected to double over the 1996-2006 period. Other professional specialty occupations projected to provide many job openings are engineers, teachers, registered nurses, therapists, physicians, and social workers. The growth of many of these occupations is the result of the expanding use of computers and increasing need for health care projected as the baby-boom population ages. The next largest number of college-level job openings is expected to occur in executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Employment in college-level jobs within this group is projected to grow annually by 185,000 between 1996 and 2006. Most of the new jobs will arise among managers, including food service and lodging managers, financial managers, and marketing, advertising, and public relations managers. Some management support occupations, such as accountants and auditors, management analysts, and personnel training, and labor relations specialists and managers will also add new college-level jobs. The remaining 164,000 college-level job openings arising due to growth each year will be distributed among other major occupational groups. In marketing and sales occupations, the latest source of college-level openings will be sales representatives who sell financial securities, real estate, machines, and a variety of other commodities. The technicians and related support occupations that will add the most college-level jobs are health, engineering, and science technicians, computer programmers, and legal assistants. A number of administrative support occupations, such as clerical supervisors, teacher aides, insurance claims processing workers, and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks will also add new college-level jobs. Finally, about 8,000 new college-level jobs will arise each year among blue-collar worker supervisors between 1996 and 2006. Agricultural and service occupations are expected to provide limited growth in college-level jobs.
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