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by Mark Mellman and Margie Omero

(Mellman and Omero are President and Vice President, respectively, of The Mellman Group, a Democratic polling firm based in Washington, D.C.)

Americans believe global warming is a real and serious threat that is happening now. As a result, there is a broad consensus in favor of action to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide that cause global warming, even in the absence of scientific consensus. Voters reject the dire predictions of economic dislocation stemming from reductions in emissions, arguing instead that "solution industries" will grow up in the place of those that are hurt, providing a benefit to the economy.

Nearly six in ten Americans (57 percent) believe global warming is happening now, while another quarter (26 percent) believe it will happen in the future. Only 8 percent are convinced that global warming is not a real phenomenon and will not happen at all.

Global warming is not just seen as real, but also as a serious threat. Nearly three-quarters (70 percent) believe it is a serious problem, while fewer than a quarter believe it is not serious. In focus groups, participants point to temperature increases, extreme weather, melting glaciers, skin cancer and wildlife destruction as evidence of the severity of its impact. They also associate global warming with a host of other environmental concerns, ranging from air pollution to rain forest destruction.

While Americans have decided for themselves that global warming is a real and serious problem, they are not sure a scientific consensus exists, although they do not much care. Forty-three percent believe there is scientific agreement on the reality of global warming, whereas 39 percent say scientists disagree about this issue. But awareness of scientific disagreement does little to dissuade Americans from a commitment to action to reduce the emissions that cause global warming. Two-thirds (66 percent) believe we should act now, while only 27 percent believe we should wait until there is scientific agreement. Even those voters who believe there is scientific disagreement do not want to wait for scientists to come together before taking action (58 percent say take action now, 25 percent say wait for scientific agreement).

What's Behind the Desire for Action?
Two lines of reasoning dictate voters' desire for action. First, people reason that we cannot wait for scientists to agree. The problem is serious, the impacts consequential and, in the public view, waiting only makes it worse. Second, voters compare the individuals and organizations that deny global warming to tobacco company scientists who denied the link between smoking and cancer. Those who deny global warming are seen as tools of polluting industries who subvert their objectivity to venal considerations. The public demand for action is strong and cuts across traditional political and demographic lines. Three-quarters (75 percent) of American voters want the U.S. to take action to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide that cause global warming, and 88 percent believe that taking such actions is "important."

While late-night comics and industry apologists may attempt to trivialize the problem, the American public has reached agreement on its reality and its seriousness. The desire for action shows up in strong support for the Kyoto Protocol and other measures to reduce emissions. Nearly 8 in 10 American voters (79 percent) support the agreement to reduce emissions; only 14 percent oppose the treaty. This strong support cuts across party lines, with Republicans favoring the Kyoto Protocol by 73 percent to 11 percent, Democrats by 84 percent to 3 percent, and Independents by 79 percent to 7 percent.

Rejecting the Arguments of Treaty Opponents
Opponents of the treaty have focused their rhetoric on two issues: the economic consequences and participation by developing countries. Americans reject both of these arguments against Kyoto. Only 21 percent say implementation of the treaty will hurt the economy, while 38 percent think it will actually improve the economy, and 24 percent see no impact.

A second objection concerns the participation of developing countries. But voters believe in the notion of American leadership and believe we should take action "regardless of what others do." Hence, two-thirds (66 percent) believe the United States should restrict carbon dioxide emissions regardless of what any other country does. Another 14 percent believe we should take action if other industrial nations do. Only 11 percent say our actions should be dependent on participation by developing countries.

There is overwhelming support for proposals designed to reduce emissions. Eighty-six percent of Americans favor requiring higher fuel efficiency and cleaner engines in new cars. Eighty-two percent support requiring utility companies to offer clean energy such as solar and nuclear power. In short, a consensus has emerged about the reality and seriousness of global warming. On this issue, the public seems far ahead of the politicians, some of whom continue to scoff. There is a public demand for America to act--unilaterally if necessary. Ignoring that demand will only lower the repute of our political system in the eyes of the public.

Methodology
The data described in this article come from a series of four national polls and over a dozen focus groups on global warming conducted by The Mellman Group, Inc. This research was conducted in 1997 and 1998 for the World Wildlife Fund, the National Environmental Trust and the Environmental Defense Fund.