The new peace offers to resolve the Angolan paradox of having everything and nothing

The signing of a formal ceasefire between the government and UNITA rebels in Luanda on April 4 has opened the door to a new era in Angola. It could mean the end of 27 years of war, one of the longest civil conflicts in Africa's post-independence history.

As President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said during his February visit to the U.S., "At this stage, peace is priority number one. It can only be achieved if both sides in the conflict show political willingness and are able to trust each other. Once they have made an agreement they have to have the courage to implement it."

The April cease-fire brings both the government and UNITA back to the Lusaka Protocol, signed in 1998, which created a government of national unity. But the most important step following the signing of the ceasefire will be the demilitarization of UNITA and the integration of former rebel soldiers into the national army.

When he arrived in Luanda to sign the ceasefire after ten years fighting in the bush, Lukamba Gato, UNITA's new interim leader, pointed out that while a brighter future beckoned in Angola, this should be based on a respect for political differences and a commitment to democracy.

Reconciliation had become possible largely because of the death a few weeks earlier of Jonas Savimbi, UNITA's founder. Savimbi, who was one of the most charismatic rebel leaders Africa has ever had, was the glue that held the organization together. Without him, the rebel movement lost its driving force.

Jonas Savimbi had indeed gone back to war after rejecting the outcome of national elections held in 1992 under United Nations supervision. Subsequently, UNITA became increasingly internally divided, especially because some of its prominent members had remained in Luanda to serve as members of parliament instead of returning to war. In 1998, a group of UNITA MPs, led by the movement's former secretary general, Eugenio Manuvakola, split away to form a new group named UNITA Renovada. It is now possible that the disparate interests within UNITA will re-unite as a political opposition.

Yet, despite the signing of the ceasefire, Angola's future remains delicate and unpredictable. Paradoxically, Angola seems to have everything and nothing. It has immeasurable mineral wealth but its people are starving, dependent on handouts from international charities.

According to a government survey, 60 percent of Angola's urban households live below the poverty line. Out of a population of 12 million, two million are internally displaced and hundreds of thousands more live outside the country as refugees, especially in Zambia. Landmines are a major obstacle to freedom of movement within Angola, with an estimated seven million mines deployed throughout the country.

Angola's economy is also hugely skewed towards a single source of revenue: oil. Petrodollars constitute 90 percent of the country's income and 42 percent of GDP. Angola is the second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, after Nigeria. In spite of the massive oil revenues, the Angolan economy has many structural distortions. One of the serious side effects of having an economy dominated by just one major resource is a phenomenon known as "The Dutch Disease" whereby investments are concentrated in one area, resulting in a failure to diversify the economy.

Even though an increasing number of international petroleum companies are now based in Angola, the U.S. remains the country's principal oil partner. Angola supplies a significant and growing percentage of oil to the U.S. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said recently, "As a non-OPEC oil-producing state, we want to work with the U.S. to contribute to its energy security."

However, he was keen to stress the breadth of the bilateral relationship. "Angolan-American economic relations go beyond the oil sector. Other U.S. companies such as Amer-Con, Coca-Cola, Mampeza, Seabord, Citigroup and HSBC and Equator Bank have all been established in Angola," he said.

Apart from oil, the other prop to the Angolan economy is diamonds. Gems represent another source of prosperity, but also of war. As UNITA controlled most diamond producing areas during the height of the civil war, it used revenues from the sales of these gems to buy weapons and therefore perpetuate the conflict. The endemic warfare of government oil vs rebel diamonds may only now be coming to an end.

This warfare has rendered other sectors of the economy in disarray. Roads, bridges and other infrastructure have all been destroyed by war and lack of maintenance. Without viable trade routes, commercial agriculture is virtually non-existent in Angola. This is a real anomaly as Angola has the capacity not only feed itself but to feed the whole of southern Africa. The fact that it has about 12 percent of Africa's water resources obviously adds to its potential.

Faustino Muteka, the Minister of Territorial Administration, emphasizes this point. "We do not just have diamonds and oil, we have fertile land, a diversity of micro-climates ranging from the Mediterranean to the tropical, from the desert to the savannah. With the current climate of peace, I foresee that Angola will become self-sufficient in food production in the very near future."

Angolans have a great sense of humor and they like to joke that when God created the world, he decided to give Angola more than its fair share of natural wealth. They say that when God was asked why he was being so generous to the Angolans, he said, "Just wait and see what kind of people I will put there." Blessed or cursed, Angolans now have the best chance in decades of realizing their country's potential.

KEY SOCIAL INDICATORS Total population: 12.1million (est.) GNP per capita: $360,under $1/day Life expectancy: 47 Population living in absolute and relative poverty: 82.5% Internally Displaced Persons: 1.7 million (est.) Population without access to health services: 76% Population without access to safe water: 69% Infant mortality rate: 175 per 1000 Illiteracy rate: 50%