Back to the Drawing Board High demand for housing plus massive spending on industrial installations is going to keep construction companies very busy.
In the construction sector, they say the best barometer of market sentiment is the amount of sleep architects are getting. The fact that a growing number are getting home later and later each evening as they fight against a backlog of work suggests that even if boom times haven't arrived quite yet, they aren't far away either.
As all consultants will tell you, in Saudi Arabia there only used to be one equation: the relationship between the price of oil and the size of order books strong oil meant plenty of work. But the lag between the oil price recovery in mid-1999 and a resurgent construction sector has been longer than usual. This is mainly the result of new government thinking: resurgent oil revenue has been used to pay down old debts, clean up the fiscal situation and post a budget surplus. Massive spending on individual projects has not been on the agenda.
However, with much of the housekeeping done, plans for the next round of development projects have been drawn up and the opportunities are huge. Perhaps one of the main potential growth areas is residential construction. The Saudi population is young and fast growing: it is expected to double over the next 20 years. For the builders this creates a healthy stream of projects. In the past, the state has shouldered the lion's share of responsibility for housing projects, but one aspect of the new thinking among the political elite is that the private sector has an important role to play. While the government allocated $4 billion for housing and infrastructure in its last budget, the private sector invested the best part of $2.5 billion in this area. As the population continues to grow, so will the volume of residential construction work.
A raft of new industrial projects also has the builders licking their lips in anticipation. At the top of everyone's lists lie the old favorites, Saudi Aramco, the oil and gas giant, and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic), one of the largest petrochemicals conglomerates in the world. The two of them might have been lying low over the past 12 months or so, but the next wave of projects is going to be impressive.
The sheer scale of Aramco's ambition is daunting: its recently prepared project budget is thought to be about $3 billion. The main thrust is the exploitation of gas and Arabian light reserves. For example, the rapid development of the Shaybah oilfield in the south-east is a massive project that has already required everything from an airstrip to a fire station with a lot in-between. Even more exciting for the contractors have been the projects at Haradh and Qatif, which are estimated to have a combined cost approaching $2 billion. The Haradh project involves the construction of a massive pipeline network to feed gas from the east into the central and western grid: more than 250 miles of pipeline will have to be built. Two other pipelines, 155 miles and 142 miles long respectively, are also to be built for the transfer of condensates. International contractors have been delighted that the pipeline projects have been fenced off for them alone, at the senior levels.
Sabic too is gearing up for a hefty spending round. Demanding the most attention is the massive new olefins complex for its subsidiary, Jubail United Petrochemical Company. The total cost of the project is expected to get close to $2 billion. Unsurprisingly, Saudi Arabia is well equipped to provide a wide range of petrochemicals projects with cheap gas feedstock, and the newly invigorated private sector is happy to oblige with fresh projects. Two new companies have been set up National Petrochemical Industries Company and Saudi International Petrochemical Company and both are aiming to start construction work on their petrochemicals initiatives worth about $600 million and $1 billion respectively within the next 12 months. The faint cheering of construction companies is clearly audible.
Also in the private sector for the first time will be a massive new railway extension program. A foreign partner for the Saudi Arabian Railways Organization is needed for the $4.5 billion scheme that is to be developed on a build-operate-transfer basis. A sizeable proportion of the new network a 1,000 mile section of track reaching up to Al-Jalamid will be servicing the nascent phosphates industry in the north of the country, near the border with Jordan. The development of the mining project is itself expected to cost $3 billion and will keep a number of construction companies in business.
Private thoughts have also penetrated the previously sacrosanct area of education and healthcare. The US's SGI Group is leading an international consortium that will be building, at a cost of $3.5 billion, about 3,000 new schools construction companies are queuing up for contracts. And, in the first half of the year, a handful of private hospital projects, ranging in size from 200 to 500 beds, have been put out to tender.
Despite the rising tide of private sector projects, the state is also preparing to spend. Plans for major urban regeneration work in Makkah and Jeddah are under preparation: the best part of $1 billion could be spent on Makkah alone over the next 15 years.
However good the short-term prospects are for the construction sector, there is no escaping that the medium-term is even better. Dwarfing everything else on the horizon is the new gas initiative. There is $30 billion worth of work to be done on this alone for those construction companies with the appetite, or the stamina, for it. It doesn't look like those architects are going to be getting to bed anytime soon.
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