2014 Midterm Elections Forecast

Election Lab

2014 Midterm Elections Forecast

Election
Lab

The Monkey Cage's political scientists
forecast the House and Senate races.
Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate.
86% chance as of 8 days ago.
Republicans are likely to retain control of the House.
Greater than 99% chance as of 8 days ago.
Senate House
Majority
+ 7 seats
45 Republicans
Current
Forecast
52 Republicans
Majority
+ 6 seats
234 Republicans
Current
Forecast
240 Republicans
what's changing?
Show
senate
senate
house
house
map
map
cartogram
cartogram
table
table
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Chance of winning:
Qualification score*:
Funds raised**:
Chance of winning:
Qualification score*:
Funds raised**:
*Qualification scores: 0: No previous elective office experience; 1: Local office or state legislature; 2: Statewide office (non-governor), including former U.S. senator; 3: U.S. House or large-city mayor; 4: Governor; 5: Incumbent elected senator (not appointed)
Democrats
Republicans
Democrats
Republicans

(51 needed for majority)
Likely Democratic/Republican
Leaning Democratic/Republican
Seats expected to flip party
Seats not expected to flip party
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Mass.
R.I.
Conn.
N.J.
Del.
Md.
Special elections
Ok.
S.C.
Hawaii.

About this project

Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race. Read more about our methodology.

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