Election Lab 2014

The Monkey Cage’s political scientists forecast the House and Senate races.

By John Sides, Kennedy Elliott, Matt Nelson and Peter Pezon, Published: Nov. 4, 2014

How did we do?

Election forecasting models from The Washington Post, the New York Times and Five Thirty-Eight are predicting nearly the same winners, just with varying degrees of confidence. There will be other, more sophisticated ways to compare the forecasts, but these comparisons provide an initial assessment of how the models fared.

Election result, 33 races confirmed

Washington Post’s prediction

New York Times’ prediction

Five Thirty-Eight’s prediction

Chance of Democratic win

Chance of Republican win

100%

50%

100%

NOTE: * denotes special elections. Predictions from the three groups were recorded at 1 p.m. ET Nov. 4, 2014.

Final 2014 Monkey Cage predictions

Show
senate
senate
house
house
map
map
cartogram
cartogram
table
table
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Chance of winning:
Qualification score*:
Funds raised**:
Chance of winning:
Qualification score*:
Funds raised**:
*Qualification scores: 0: No previous elective office experience; 1: Local office or state legislature; 2: Statewide office (non-governor), including former U.S. senator; 3: U.S. House or large-city mayor; 4: Governor; 5: Incumbent elected senator (not appointed)
Democrats
Republicans
Democrats
Republicans

(51 needed for majority)
Likely Democratic/Republican
Leaning Democratic/Republican
Seats expected to flip party
Seats not expected to flip party
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Mass.
R.I.
Conn.
N.J.
Del.
Md.
Special elections
Okla.
S.C.
Hawaii

About this project

Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race. Read more about our methodology.

NOTE: Between Oct. 23 and Nov. 4, the Election Lab forecast did not update for several congressional districts. This has been corrected and the updated forecasts have been published.

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