NHL On Path For Major Collapse
By Thomas Boswell
Thursday, June 3, 2004; Page D01
The NHL is not just in danger of a long labor lockout or a lost season. Professional hockey, though it seems oblivious to its mortal risk, may be on the brink of losing its place as a major team sport.
Last week, after a 2 1/2-hour meeting with the head of the NHL Players Association, Commissioner Gary Bettman was asked if the NHL would open training camp for next season without a new labor agreement. "We cannot live under the collective bargaining agreement for any longer than its term," Bettman said.
That's not an announcement of a lockout by NHL owners for next season. But it's about as close as you can get.
"While there was candid discussion, it would be misleading to suggest that there was any progress made or to characterize our discussions as productive," said Ted Saskin, the union's senior director. No more talks are scheduled.
At about the same time, washingtonpost.com, the Post's Web site, ran an online poll asking which teams would be in the Stanley Cup finals. The largest response -- 42 percent of users -- was: "Didn't realize the NHL playoffs were going on." The NHL just doesn't get it. Both the owners and players are living in a parallel universe of complete delusion. Because they love hockey, they think everybody cares about it. Because they can't imagine a world without the NHL, they don't realize the majority of sports fans care little whether the NHL even exists.
If you doubt it, check the TV ratings for the Finals From Nielsen Hell between the Calgary Flames and Tampa Bay Lightning. If the Weather Channel had a power outage, its ratings would still crush the NHL's numbers.
In almost every respect, the fight between the NHL's owners and players mirrors the battle in baseball that led to the strike of 1994 and the cancellation of the World Series. The financial issues, long-standing personal animosity and hard-line rhetoric could hardly be more similar.
However, there is one huge difference.
Baseball is America's national pastime. Hockey is Canada's national pastime. Yet the NHL is counting on American fans and American dollars to come back to the NHL the way they came back to baseball. What business would take such a bet-the-industry risk? What union would tempt such career suicide for its members?
No one should doubt the seriousness of both sides, certainly not the owners who are already firing team employees or not replacing those who quit. Teams including Washington, Carolina, Dallas, Florida, Edmonton, St. Louis, Anaheim and Phoenix have laid off or plan to lay off a substantial number of employees. At last count, the Caps had fired four people in hockey operations, while seven people in other departments had quit.
After a lockout and a lost season, which is currently considered the highest probability outcome, there would certainly still be an NHL in some form. But what form would that be? How many teams would it contain? What would its attendance be? Just because baseball is in excellent health after a fundamental breach of trust with its customers, that should not serve as some sort of subliminal message to hockey's owners and players.
Here's the kicker, the wild card, the enormous factor the NHL seems not to have considered. The imminent danger for hockey is that if it does anything as destructive as baseball did in '94-'95, the NHL may lose its status alongside the NFL, MLB and NBA as a major professional team sport.
"Major" is a vague but invaluable distinction conferred in the public mind. Some sports, some events, are major. Some aren't. There's no election, no referendum. Nobody calls to tell you on the day you move from one category to the other. But, over time, it happens. And for years hockey has been slipping back toward "minor." In its most recent TV contract, the NHL accepted terms that were comparable to the Arena Football League.
Once a major sport falls back into the pack of wannabes, it never recovers. Once, prize fighting and horse racing were huge national sports, far bigger than hockey has ever dreamed of being. Does hockey understand that if it shrinks in popularity as much as boxing and horse racing that it will not just be small, it will almost be invisible? Can you say, bowling? Actually, that would be an insult to bowling with its large participant base.
© 2004 The Washington Post Company