"This Macworld is going to be remembered not just for the products that were introduced . . . but for Apple's recognition that there is a mass market out there," said Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg.
He described the Mac mini as Apple's "first opportunity in about 15 years to become a mass-market item" and suggested that the shuffle's just-under-$100 price would leave little room for competing players: "There's going to be a lot of folks in that business right now reaching for the Maalox," said Adam Engst, editor of the influential Mac newsletter Tidbits. "I think it's a good thing and I think they're going to sell an absolute ton of them," Engst said.
"These things are almost an impulse buy at the register."
He noted, however, that the computer-only marketing of the Mac mini would make it less of a bargain to customers who don't have a spare keyboard, mouse and monitor to plug into one: "The price isn't that much lower than an eMac or an iMac by the time you buy everything else."
Apple has made earlier attempts at discount-priced Macs -- for example, the Mac LC line in the early 1990's -- but the Mac mini undercuts those prices substantially even without factoring in inflation.
But it's also the first Mac to be sold with the express expectation that customers will complete a computer setup by using other companies' hardware; Apple hasn't even sold an entry-level monitor in years.
"That's not the PC for the masses . . . . I don't see it as being a competitive product to those $499 eMachines at Best Buy," said Stephen Baker, NPD Group analyst. "To me, it's another attack on the $700 to $1,100 market."
In the rest of the keynote at the Moscone Center here, Jobs showed off Mac OS X Tiger, an update due in the first half of this year that will bring a new integrated search capability, updated iChat AV software that will allow video-conferencing online among up to four people, a faster e-mail program and "Dashboard," a set of quick-lookup programs that people can use for such tasks as tracking a flight, getting a dictionary definition, or checking the status of an eBay auction.
Jobs also demonstrated an update to its iLife suite of music, photo, movie and DVD applications. The new iLife '05 bundle will add new picture-editing tools, additional DVD themes and the option to make high-definition movies (with the right camcorder).
Lastly, Jobs introduced iWork, which packages an updated version of Apple's Keynote presentation program and a new application called Pages. The latter lets users create detailed, picture-heavy newsletters, posters and other layouts without needing to use separate desktop-publishing software.
Both iLife and iWork will sell for $79, starting Jan. 22; iLife will also be included on all new Macs.
A key question for Apple is if all this new hardware and software can extend its winning streak in digital music -- Jobs noted that Apple has sold over 10 million iPods to date and 230 million songs online at its iTunes Music Store -- to the desktop and laptop markets. Its market-share numbers there, as low as 2 percent in some estimates, fall far short of what Apple has accomplished in the music business.
Despite not even offering an MP3 program until four years ago, Apple says it now owns 65 percent of the digital-music-player market and 70 percent of the music-download business.
Gartenberg said Apple's best time is now, and the Mac mini (cheaper than the most expensive iPod) may be the computer to do it: "It comes at a time in the market when Apple has such a strongly reinvigorated brand in the minds of consumers, thanks to the iPod."
But Baker said Apple is ignoring its biggest potential selling point: "The opportunity in computers is something they're not addressing -- viruses and spyware and stuff like that," Baker said. "They don't talk about that."
