Democrats' Confidence Precedes Convention

Those arguments aside, the Democrats said they start their convention ahead of where some past challengers have been. "When you look at past conventions, people are trying to do what Kerry has already done, consolidate their party and try to bring unity to it," Cahill said. "We've accomplished that already."

A new poll by the Pew Research Center found the Democrats' image is significantly better than it was on the eve of the 2002 midterm congressional and gubernatorial elections, when the Republicans made historic gains. On both the economy and terrorism, the Democrats have gained ground and are now seen by the public as better equipped to deal with the economy and about even with Bush and the Republicans on terrorism, where Bush once held a big advantage.

But GOP pollster David Winston said that the electorate is not trying to assign blame but trying to determine what each candidate plans to do about the country's problems. "That's a net positive because we're the party in power," he said.

Democrats argue that, while Kerry still must answer voters' questions about him starting this week, the election shapes up far better for him than for Bush. Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about 55 percent of the public wants a change in direction. "Kerry runs with a majority in front of him that wants change," Greenberg said. "He's got to demonstrate that he's the person who can lead, but the majority for change seems pretty well established."

Simon Rosenberg of the centrist New Democratic Network said Kerry is in a stronger position than Bush because the president has to make up lost ground among the voters. "Bush has to go get back what he had, which is very hard," he said. "I would rather be us than them right now."

But key Bush advisers and their Republican allies said they see a possible turn in the president's direction. "External events have dominated but if that's the case then it makes me feel even better," said a top Bush political adviser. "The president's approval rating is firming up, the numbers on the economy are firming up and Democrats, instead of getting a big bounce [from Edwards's selection] got a brief bounce that quickly washed away. So the fundamentals are firming up for Bush."

Several GOP pollsters said with external events so dominant in this campaign, Bush may look forward to better news in the months ahead that could shift the electorate in his direction. "This President Bush has time for the economy to help him far more than his father did in 1992," said Whit Ayres, an Atlanta-based Republican pollster. "The economy started growing six months earlier than it did in 1992."

Republicans see Iraq as a wild card that yet could work to Bush's benefit if U.S. casualties diminish and the new interim government is seen as taking hold successfully. But several Democratic governors interviewed in the past week said there is little evidence that the transfer of power there has shifted attitudes among their constituents in the president's favor.

The Democrats plan to make Kerry the singular focus of their convention this week in the hope that he can fill out a profile that remains only partially completed in the minds of many voters.

The Bush campaign's Mehlman said Kerry so far has failed to do what Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, the two successful Democratic candidates of recent decades, had done by the time of their conventions. "The only Democrats who have succeeded have defined themselves as being different kind of Democrats," he said. "It's hard to argue that John Kerry has done that" since wrapping up his nomination.

William Mayer, a political science professor at Northeastern University here, said Kerry's Massachusetts roots and campaign style remain obstacles as he attempts to connect more directly with voters. "Whatever else you want to say about Clinton, he had a much clearer positive message than Kerry does," he said.

Two Democratic governors, Bob Wise of West Virginia and Mark R. Warner of Virginia, said they saw a far more positive candidate in recent campaign appearances in their states. "In Charleston, I saw this guy begin to connect with the crowd," Wise said.

But Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) said he believes more needs to be done. "I just don't think Kerry has come across in identifying himself in any particular way," he said. "I think you have to do something, be much more specific with the voters."

Kerry hopes to use the convention to do that but in an environment that no recent challenger has confronted, one in which terrorism has reshaped the presidency and to some extent the voters' checklist of what they want in a commander in chief.

Democratic and Republican strategists see swing voters in particular as torn between a desire for a new direction and a reluctance to change presidents in such an unsettled time. As GOP pollster Ayres put it, "Any reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, but to say that implies that the challenger doesn't matter, and I don't believe that is the case, particularly in a time of war. The challenger matters a lot when the country is under attack."

The next week will begin to answer the question of whether Kerry can begin to cross that threshold successfully.