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The Mid-Atlantic

Sunday, October 31, 2004; Page A21

Delaware (3)

Safe for Kerry. Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D), seeking a second term, is favored over former state Superior Court Judge Bill Lee (R).

District of Columbia (3)

Kerry will swamp Bush in this overwhelmingly Democratic city. District voters also are poised to reelect Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) as their delegate to Congress. Former mayor Marion Barry is expected to win a ward seat on the D.C. Council.


West Virginia gubernatorial candidates Republican Monty Warner, left, and Secretary of State Joe Manchin III, right, watch the Rev. Mark Seitz flip a coin to see who will get the first question at a forum. (Scott Mccloskey -- AP)

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___ State by State Analysis ___
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Contributors

This regional overview was compiled by staff writers David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Charles Babington with staff writer Juliet Eilperin and political researcher Brian Faler. Staff writers Ceci Connolly in Pennsylvania, Thomas B. Edsall in Iowa, Jonathan Finer in New Hampshire, John F. Harris in Ohio, Evelyn Nieves in Nevada, Michael Powell in Wisconsin, Manuel Roig-Franzia in Florida, Peter Slevin in Minnesota, and Vanessa Williams in New Mexico contributed to this report.

Maryland (10)

No drama here. Kerry is heavily favored, as is Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, a Baltimore Democrat. She is seeking a fourth term against state Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R-Queen Anne's).

New Jersey (15)

The only question here is whether Bush can pull off a stunning upset. New Jersey voted heavily Democratic in the last two presidential elections, and Kerry has assumed he was safe here. But the state lost almost 700 people in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and the GOP convention in New York City, which focused heavily on homeland security themes, gave Bush a boost in neighboring New Jersey. Democrats were not helped, meanwhile, when Gov. James E. McGreevey (D) said he would resign amid a sex scandal. Bush lost here by 16 percentage points in 2000, and he chose not to buy ads in metropolitan New York's costly market this fall to test the notion that he might be able to eliminate that gap.

North Carolina (15)

Kerry briefly had hopes here after tapping Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) for his ticket, but he dropped all TV ads. Gov. Mike Easley (D), seeking a second term, has held steady leads in polls over former state Senate GOP leader Patrick J. Ballantine. The marquee race is for Edwards's Senate seat. Former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine B. Bowles (D), the 2002 nominee, has seen his lead over Rep. Richard Burr (R) shrink to a dead heat. If Burr's momentum continues through this weekend, he should win. In House races, Democrats say Patsy Keever might upset Rep. H. Charles Taylor (R). Republicans Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry are favored to hold GOP House seats left open by retirements.

Virginia (13)

Although Kerry's campaign ran some last-minute ads in Northern Virginia, a Bush loss here would be shocking. In House races, the big question is Norfolk's Republican-leaning district, where Rep. Edward L. Schrock (R) dropped out of the race Aug. 30. State Del. Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the ballot, but Democratic lawyer David B. Ashe hopes to snatch this district from the GOP.

West Virginia (5)

Kerry had all but written off the Mountain State until recent polls suggested the race was close. Bush, nevertheless, has the edge. Gov. Bob Wise (D) is not seeking reelection, after acknowledging an extramarital affair. But Democrats expect to keep the office, with Secretary of State Joe Manchin III holding an edge over GOP nominee Monty Warner. In the House, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is favored to fend off former news anchor Erik P. Wells (D).


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