The opposition is suspicious of Sunday's vote in part because of the government's repeated challenges of the referendum process. The opposition gathered millions of signatures to hold the recall, but the Chavez administration alleged fraud and harassed some of the people who signed the petitions, according to diplomats and government critics.
But faced with international pressure and the specter of street violence, Chavez ultimately agreed to the referendum. As the vote approached, his popularity rose as he used soaring oil income to launch education, health and food programs in this nation of 25 million.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez talks to the media at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. He said it is "impossible" for him to be defeated in the referendum.
(Kimberly White -- Reuters)
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Chavez has also played on fears of instability if he loses the recall. Millions of people in this poor country are passionately dedicated to the charismatic president. He is believed to have strong support in the military and in the state-run oil company, which he purged of opponents after they spearheaded a general strike aimed at forcing his resignation.
Still, for all the doomsday scenarios, diplomats and Chavez aides said his supporters would likely fall in line behind him if the president loses and accepts the results.
"We have a leader. His name is Hugo Chavez," said one of his top campaign aides, Samuel Moscada. If Chavez is recalled, he said, "it's not a catastrophe. In 30 days there will be another election."
If Chavez wins on Sunday by a slim margin, however, "it would be very tense," Moscada said. "This would be almost as bad as if he lost."
Many polls gave Chavez a small lead going into the referendum. However, with about 10 percent of likely voters saying they were undecided, the result was difficult to predict, pollsters said.
The opposition coalition has mobilized hundreds of thousands of people, ranging from right-wing businessmen to homemakers to former leftist guerrillas. Analysts said the opposition has suffered from a lack of leadership and a clear program but has considerable experience in mobilizing voters.
Chavez has also rallied hundreds of thousands of followers to promote his cause. He has campaigned with the slogan "No to the Past," referring to former politicians associated with the upper class who were reviled for their poor economic results and alleged corruption.
"A year ago, we thought the only way Chavez could win was through cheating," said Luis Vicente Leon, director of the Datanalisis polling firm, noting that the president's popularity had dipped at that time because of a prolonged recession. But now the economy has started to grow, and Chavez has run an effective campaign, putting him on an equal footing with his opponents, analysts said.
His message has convinced Marta Vielma, 41, who sells beauty creams from her home in a working-class area of Caracas.
"The only president who has done things for the people is Hugo Chavez," she said. "All those people who ruled before just destroyed the country."
