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'Oil Shock' Has Some Economists Worried

Voters rank the economy among their top concerns, and the presidential campaign of Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) yesterday blamed record oil prices on President Bush's economic policies.

"The Bush administration seems confused about what records it should be setting during the Olympics," Phil Singer, a Kerry campaign spokesman, said in a statement. "You don't get gold medals for record oil prices, record deficits or record health care costs. This is what happens when you have a White House that lacks a viable strategy for the economy or reducing our dependence on Middle Eastern oil."


Crude-oil traders work the floor of the Mercantile Exchange in New York yesterday. (Michelle Axelrod -- New York Mercantile Exchange/AP)

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Treasury Secretary John W. Snow countered by calling on Congress to pass the president's energy bill to make the economy less dependent on foreign oil, according to the text of a speech he delivered to workers in Missouri.

"The price of oil is causing an economic headwind," Snow said. "The president's plan will lead to lower costs and that's very important for our economy."

Adjusting for inflation, the price of oil remains far below a 1981 peak, when the level was equivalent to more than $72 a barrel in today's dollars, said John C. Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group based in Washington.

But higher prices have rippled around the globe, as forecasters from Wall Street to Brussels to Seoul trim economic growth estimates.

"Europe is looking pretty fragile right now anyway, so this oil price shock comes at a bad time," said Jonathan Hoffman, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Financial Markets, according to an Associated Press report. "We are in a different world than what we used to be. . . . Who knows what al Qaeda is doing in Saudi Arabia?"

Meanwhile, higher prices sting U.S. consumers and businesses in a variety of ways.

Americans were paying an average $1.87 yesterday for a gallon of regular gasoline, 15 percent more than a year ago, according to the AAA auto club. Even with rising oil prices, U.S. gasoline prices have slipped from their highs this year in May because of ample supplies relative to domestic demand.

If the price of oil hits $50 a barrel, U.S. households will see their weekly costs rise by an average $14.80 per family, according to a recent study by the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association.


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