Hastert Cautions Bush About Social Security Plan

House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) has warned the White House that voters are not yet ready to accept fundamental changes to Social Security as wary Republicans are cautioning the president to be as vague as possible about his plan.

White House and congressional GOP tacticians said yesterday that they now see little chance that Bush will issue a detailed plan for partially privatizing Social Security the way he released specific proposals for tax cuts and other major initiatives.

Key leaders including House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) have urged Bush to speak in general terms about altering Social Security and to leave it to Congress to develop specific proposals.

This contrasts with an earlier Capitol Hill strategy of letting the president take the lead -- and take most of the political heat -- in pushing for changes in the politically sensitive Social Security program.

"I don't want them [the administration] to do our job, which is create legislation," House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said in an interview. "Information is power in this debate, and we're going to see that our members get as much of it as possible."

Party officials said that, at most, Bush may simply refine his principles, calling chiefly for a new way for younger workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes, without any increase in the payroll tax.

Hastert, in an interview with the Chicago Tribune, said significant groundwork must still be done before Congress can think of passing a bill to allow workers to divert part of their payroll taxes from Social Security to stocks and bonds.

"I have said to the president, I've said it to all of his advisers, and I've said to all of our folks: 'Look it, you can't jam change down the American people's throat unless they perceive there really is a problem, that there's something there that isn't going to work 12 or 14 years from now, and it's going to be a catastrophe when we reach that point,' " Hastert said.

The speaker added that his members would be able to "lift this load" only if the Senate is headed toward passage as well, and if some Democrats are willing to join.

Aides said Hastert is pleased with Bush's effort and is optimistic about the outcome, but his frankness caught many at the Capitol by surprise. His remarks reflected the trepidation of lawmakers from swing districts and areas with large concentrations of senior citizens.

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.), an Appropriations Committee member, gave voice to the GOP's internal opposition in a Jan. 24 form letter to concerned constituents. The letter undercuts the heart of Bush's proposal.

"I cannot support any plan to allow workers to place any portion of their Social Security taxes in risky investments, especially those that depend upon the stock market to appreciate in value," she said in the letter, obtained by the Web log Talking Points Memo. "It remains my opinion that Social Security reform is not necessary at all if Congress would seriously address Medicare reform, balance the budget, erase the trade deficit, and make pension reform a real priority."

She said in a more recent statement, however, that she has "an open mind on what might be done."

Democratic leaders, who have been debating whether to release a plan of their own, said they have decided not to as long as Bush's ideas are undergoing so much criticism. The current strategy calls for them to wait and see if the proposal dies, and only then come forward with their own blueprint for some type of retirement savings accounts, lawmakers said.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said polling shows that Bush's ideas are "losing altitude fast."

But Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman held a conference call yesterday to declare himself encouraged by recent polling that shows strong majorities agreeing that Social Security faces future problems. He said in a memo to party leaders: "Social Security reform is not only good policy, it's also good politics."

Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D-Del.) said he is open to considering personal accounts because they might stimulate savings. "I don't believe that we should rule out the accounts," he said in an interview with the Associated Press. But he said he would not support significant benefit cuts or significant borrowing to pay for the accounts.

Bush spent much of the week speaking throughout the country about his proposal for restructuring Social Security, but without providing details -- such as precisely how to offset the large cost of the transition to new investment accounts for younger workers. Officials have said massive borrowing might be part of the solution.

The president has ruled out raising taxes to fund the new program. But the White House has not answered repeated questions from reporters about whether Bush would consider it a tax increase to raise the cap -- currently $90,000 -- on the amount of income that is subject to payroll taxes. Some lawmakers have said that the unwillingness of Bush aides to rule that out suggests it might be part of his preferred package.

Worried about possible defections, administration officials have tried to reassure GOP lawmakers in several ways. For example, the White House produced a video of Bush's roadshow to show wavering Republicans that the president is working as hard on the issue as he did during his own campaign.