Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture

"The growth engines have all slowed," Saftlas said.

Instead of investing heavily in "me too" drugs that barely differ from existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials, Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for unmet medical needs.

However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or two. Still, there may be some bright spots for the drug companies.

Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a time. "Americans understand taking pills," he said. "It's simple. It's an easy thing to do. And many pills over the years have been very effective. We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases."

Jerome L. Avorn, a Harvard Medical School professor and author of a book called "Powerful Medicines: The Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Prescription Drugs," questioned whether there would really be changes in the way that drug companies and the FDA do business.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Avorn said, "It may be a case of waiting things out and hoping there will be other crises and hoping that the public's attention span is short."

Yesterday, Pfizer shares were buoyed by a twist in the federal study that showed cardiac problems with naproxen: It didn't show the same problems with Celebrex. Pfizer shares closed at $24.97, up 68 cents. Merck shares were up 47 cents at $31.98.

But both companies are down significantly from their 52-week highs -- $49.33 for Merck and $38.89 for Pfizer -- and Saftlas said bargain hunters may be buying up shares.

"I don't see a sustained rally occurring" for drug company shares, Saftlas said. "I don't see the catalyst to support that rally."