Just two and a half months before voters go to the polls, the outlook for the U.S. Senate remains as muddled as ever, with both political parties proclaiming an edge in the battle for control of the upper chamber of Congress.
Republicans now hold a 51-48 advantage over Democrats in the Senate. The Senate has one independent, James M. Jeffords of Vermont, a former Republican who votes mostly with the Democrats. Of the 34 seats up for grabs this year, 15 are currently held by Republicans and 19 by Democrats, and only about a quarter of the total are considered truly competitive.
Democrats say they've recruited a strong slate of candidates, and that, combined with Bush-fatigue and a general sense among voters that the nation is going in the wrong direction, creates a positive climate for them in November. In an Associated Press poll taken earlier this month, 59 percent of Americans said the nation is moving in the wrong direction -- not a good sign for the party holding power.
Republicans counter that Democrats have more seats to defend, and that most of those seats are in Bush-friendly, GOP-dominated states.
In fact, all eight of the most competitive senate races this year are in states Bush won in 2000. And the consensus among both the parties and nonpartisan analysts is that five states are definite toss-ups: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana and Oklahoma. North Carolina, South Dakota and South Carolina are also often cited as too difficult to call.
Republican Party officials, who did not want to be named so they could speak more freely about their prospective candidates, assert -- and the analysts agree -- that they have at least an outside chance to knock off Democratic incumbents in Washington, Wisconsin and California. Democratic officials, who also did not want to be named for the same reason, argue that their best chances for a GOP-incumbent upset are in Pennsylvania and Missouri.
The one thing on which everyone seems to agree is that at least two states will almost assuredly switch parties. Most Democrats inside the Beltway will privately acknowledge that the Georgia seat currently held by retiring Zell Miller will go to Republican candidate Johnny Isakson. And most Republicans privately acknowledge that the seat currently held by retiring Republican Peter Fitzgerald is likely to go to Democrat Barack Obama.
Republicans are delighted about their prospects of holding on to the majority, arguing that the best possible general election candidates emerged from several tense intra-party squabbles this summer.
The Democratic officials are crowing about their chances to pick up a net gain of two seats, which would bring the GOP to 49 seats and give the Democrats a tenuous majority. Nonpartisan analysts agree this is possible, but difficult. Despite the stellar recruiting efforts of the Democrats, it remains a difficult challenge to take back the Senate this year, particularly because so many races are in the South. For the Democrats to be successful, they'll probably need to win three of the southern states, plus hold South Dakota and win either Colorado or Oklahoma.
So with that, let's take a quick state-by-state tour of the 12 most competitive states:
Alaska: A tight race is shaping up between incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski and
and former governor Tony Knowles. Former senator Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the seat after he left office to become governor in 2003. Murkowski first has to survive an Aug. 24 primary, and she most likely will. But charges of nepotism have hampered her campaign.
Colorado: Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell is retiring. Democrats have recruited a strong candidate in state Attorney General Ken Salazar. Salazar is well-funded and has strong name recognition, but the Republican nominee, beer-heir Pete Coors, does too. Coors, with the backing of the party establishment, won a competitive primary against former congressman Bob Schaffer and is a strong candidate.
Florida: Retiring Democrat Bob Graham holds the seat, and it's the toughest state to call because of a late primary -- Aug. 31 -- and the high number of candidates on the ballot. On the Democratic side, five candidates are squaring off. The three main Democrats are Rep. Peter Deutsch, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and former state education commissioner Betty Castor. The race has been brutal at times. Some analysts believe Castor would make the strongest candidate in the general election, but Deutsch has been a feisty, well-financed competitor. On the Republican side, seven candidates are on the ballot, with three main contenders: former HUD secretary Mel Martinez, former congressman Bill McCollum and businessman Doug Gallagher. This one is anybody's guess.
Louisiana: Retiring Democrat John Breaux holds this seat, and the race is almost as confounding as Florida's, given Louisiana's arcane election rules that throw candidates from both parties on one general election ballot on Nov. 2. The good news for Republicans is that the ballot will include only one of their guys, Rep. David Vitter, who has the backing of the state and national party. The bad news for Democrats is that three serious Democratic contenders have qualified for the ballot. The odds-on favorite among Democrats and nonpartisan analysts in Washington is Rep. Chris John, but he faces a challenge from state treasurer John Kennedy and state Rep. Arthur Morrell. Since no candidate is expected to win a majority in November, expect to see yet another runoff in December. This is the only state in the South that hasn't elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction. But the party has at least a 50-50 shot of doing it this year.
