Numbed to the Numbers

PERHAPS THE COUNTRY is suffering a collective case of deficit fatigue. How many times, after all, can you hear the Bush administration confidently announce that the deficit will be cut in half by 2009 and summon the energy to point out the massive costs this optimistic projection omits? How often can you listen to administration officials airily wave off questions about what will happen in the following years -- as if the uncertainty of such predictions justifies ignoring the likely trends? What else can explain the general indifference that greeted the analysis of the administration's budget proposals that the Congressional Budget Office released last week?

Far from making a serious dent in deficits, the CBO found, the president's proposed budget would pile up an additional $1.6 trillion in debt over the next 10 years, compared with the cost of doing nothing other than letting spending grow with inflation. Most of that amount, $1.4 trillion, would be the result of approving the president's plan to make his tax cuts permanent. In total, under the Bush plan, deficits over the next 10 years would add up to $2.6 trillion.

This number, it's important to remember, understates the likely size of future deficits. For one thing, President Bush is proposing spending cuts that are already encountering congressional resistance. But even assuming Mr. Bush gets his way, his budget doesn't include costs that are certain to be incurred (for example, it doesn't include a penny for operations in Iraq or Afghanistan), costs that are likely to be incurred (there is nothing provided for adjusting the alternative minimum tax, for instance) or costs that will be incurred if the president succeeds on Social Security reform (the budget reflects none of the cost for establishing personal accounts, which according to the administration's calculations would drain an additional $754 billion from the Treasury through 2015).

And what is the congressional reaction to the findings of its own budget analysts? Lawmakers are preparing to unveil a budget resolution today that would provide for speedy passage this year (with amendments limited, and no filibuster allowed) of $70 billion to $100 billion in tax cuts. Given the tax cut fever of recent years, this number is said to be a sign of restraint, of a majority chastened, finally, by the mountainous national debt. Perhaps so, but this is the restraint of a dieter who is accustomed to scarfing down three pies a day and wants applause for cutting back to one. Nor is this a fiscally balanced diet. With programs such as health care for the poor and food stamps on the chopping block, with deficits piling up year after year, it's a skewed, reckless move to extend tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans.