Two Trouble Spots for Bush: Iraq and the Philly Suburbs

Two other Republicans, whose Pittsburgh area districts gave Bush 52 percent of the vote, see security concerns vying with worries about the economy. Reps. Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy both mentioned the anxiety about the future of bankrupt US Airways, which has thousands of jobs in the area, as a damper on optimism.

But Hart said: "On the war on terror, people know there are still people out there intending us harm, and they feel comfortable with the president safeguarding their families."

Murphy, from a neighboring district, said he finds "strong feelings on both sides of the Iraq issue, but the worry is we may be stuck there."

"People say, 'Let's work on getting out of there soon,' " Murphy added.

Here in the Philadelphia area, the battle is intense. Rep. Robert A. Brady, the city's Democratic chairman, and Rep. Chaka Fattah (D), a leading African American politician, said a successful registration campaign last year for the mayoral race set the stage for a similar effort this year that could boost Kerry's margin above Gore's. "There are two drivers for the Kerry vote," Fattah said. "There's a strong anti-Bush sentiment in the Democratic base, and health care is a critical issue."

Rep. Curt Weldon (R), whose suburban district went narrowly for Gore, said the Bush campaign has mounted "the most effective, targeted voter-identification system I've ever seen."

"They've made thousands of phone calls using marketing information on things like magazine subscriptions to develop extensive lists of people who, based on other parameters, fit the profile of the voters we need," Weldon said.

But after a wobble in early September, Kerry strategists and Rendell now see the Democratic nominee with at least a modest lead. Santorum said that he thinks "it's probably a two-point race" and that, with a healthy turnout in the Lehigh Valley and southwestern Pennsylvania, Bush might eke out a win.

For some politicians, the conflict their constituents feel is echoed at home. Retiring Rep. James C. Greenwood (R), whose suburban district went 51 percent for Gore, said his polling has found that "national security and medical malpractice reform -- we have a disaster with doctors leaving -- are strong suits for Bush."

"Even those who are pro-choice may be swayed by security concerns," he said. "My wife is a perfect example. She is a pro-choice social worker, but she says to her friends, 'My number one issue is security from terrorism, and I don't trust John Kerry on that.' "

Political researcher Brian Faler in Washington contributed to this report.