After Hong Kong Election, China Faces New Calculus

Martin Lee, a founder of Hong Kong's Democratic Party, second from left, talks to reporters with fellow candidates Yeung Sum, third from left, and Albert Ho, fourth from left. (Anat Givon -- AP)

In April, China ruled out direct elections to choose all the territory's lawmakers and a successor to its unpopular chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, who was appointed by officials in Beijing. As many as a half-million people marched on July 1 to protest the decision.

But in the short term, the Chinese government is unlikely to face a governance crisis in Hong Kong. With 25 seats in the legislature, the pro-democracy opposition may be able to make life difficult for Tung but it will not be able to block bills.

As a result, the opposition faces a tough decision about whether to stick to demands for universal suffrage to choose Tung's successor in 2007 and the entire legislature in 2008, or to try to engage the government in discussions about more limited reforms.

Yeung Sum, chairman of the Democratic Party, noted that a large majority of voters cast ballots for pro-democracy candidates, demonstrating that public support for universal suffrage remained high. But the democrats managed to win barely 60 percent of the vote, about the same share they won in 1998 and slightly less than they picked up in 2000.

Loh said the inability of the opposition to expand its support further suggests it needs to develop a platform of economic and social policies to supplement its campaign for greater democracy. "They have to persuade people that they have policies, that they could really govern if given the chance," she said. But she said the task is difficult because the coalition is united primarily by its pro-democracy position and split on other issues.

One sign of rising public frustration is the surprise victory by veteran street activist Leung Kwok-hung, also known as "Long Hair" for his flowing, dark locks. Leung, who built a reputation by disrupting public meetings and shouting at Tung, won more than 60,000 votes, three times the number he garnered four years ago.

His uncompromising views on China's violent 1989 crackdown on student protests in Tiananmen Square and other subjects could exacerbate tensions between Hong Kong and Beijing. Hong Kong politicians often play down or refrain from criticism of Beijing's policies on the mainland, and try to distance the territory's democracy movement from the efforts of dissidents and others in China the government considers subversive.

But almost immediately after winning election, Leung paid tribute to "those who sacrifice their time, their lives for the cause of democracy in China and Hong Kong," mentioning one exiled dissident and friend who he said had been tortured.