Poll Position

Throughout the 2000 campaign the Democrats, who have a philosophical soft spot for Nader, handle him with kid gloves.

(Not so in 2004: They've reminded everyone who will listen that he cost Gore the presidency in 2000, when his Democratic supporters outnumbered Republicans 2 to 1. So far this year many Democratic voters haven't been listening, or don't seem to care, as polls show Nader continuing to draw votes away from Kerry.)

July 11 to 25: Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat meet at Camp David. Talks collapse despite Israeli concessions.

July 25: To answer critics who question his experience and gravitas, Bush names former congressman and defense secretary Dick Cheney as his running mate a week before the start of the Republican convention in Philadelphia.

(Note to John Kerry: It's a myth that vice presidential candidates do much to help the ticket. As a rule, vice presidential candidates don't by themselves add votes, nor do they enhance the likelihood of winning the veep's home state, according to political scientists who have studied the impact of vice presidential candidates in presidential elections. A notable exception: Lyndon B. Johnson, who undoubtedly helped John F. Kennedy carry Texas in 1960.)

In 2000, Cheney's selection seems to help, at least a little bit. Six in 10 voters approve of Bush's choice. Even though a substantially larger majority say it will make no difference to their vote, Bush increases his advantage over Gore and goes to the City of Brotherly Love riding a 12-point lead and a wave of favorable publicity.

July 28: The Commerce Department announces that the economy grew at a "vigorous" 5.2 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2000 -- welcome news for a beleaguered Gore but bad news for Bush on the eve of the GOP convention. As a very rough rule of thumb, the nominee of the incumbent's party rarely loses when the economy grows by roughly 4 percent or more. Less than that -- watch out.

But all bets are off when the election comes in the midst of an unpopular war. In 1968, the economy grew at an annual rate of 7.8 percent during the first half of the year. That should have greased the skids for the Democratic nominee, Hubert Humphrey. But Humphrey couldn't overcome dissatisfaction with the Vietnam War and political unrest at home, and narrowly lost to Richard Nixon .

July 31 to August 3: Bounce! Presidential conventions are little more than weeklong ads for the party's candidate, and the predictable result is an uptick for the nominee in the polls. Bush's bounce begins even before delegates arrive in Philadelphia. Political scientists say most bounces quickly dissipate. But some voters won over during the conventions do stick with the ticket through Election Day, so size matters -- the bigger the bounce, the better.

(The 2004 exception: Incumbent presidents such as Bush historically don't get much of a bounce. So look this year to see if Kerry is bouncing, and how high. No bounce is bad news for Democrats.)

August 7: Gore picks Joseph Lieberman as his running mate. The Connecticut senator was the first Democrat to denounce President Clinton on the floor of the Senate for his X-rated canoodling with Monica Lewinsky. Polls immediately show that most voters who approve of Clinton's policies but disapprove of him personally say they feel more comfortable with Gore because he picked Lieberman. But other than reassuring voters already predisposed to vote for Gore, it's doubtful that Lieberman does much: About half the voters say Lieberman's selection makes them feel more favorably toward Gore -- virtually identical to voter assessments of Cheney.

(One wild card in 2004 may be the impact of the other mates: the wives of the two nominees. Everybody loves Laura Bush, a former librarian who dresses sensibly, while Kerry's helpmate, Teresa Heinz Kerry -- first name pronounced Tuhrayza, European style -- may be a bit too, well, cosmopolitan for American tastes.)

August 11: Patrick J. Buchanan, veteran of the 1992 and 1996 Republican primaries, wins the Reform Party nomination after a disputatious convention. Though Buchanan attracts as much as 6 percent of the vote in Washington Post-ABC News polls over the summer, by Labor Day he has lodged firmly at 1 percent. On Election Day, he garners even less than that.

August 14 to 17: Democrats put on their own party in mid-August and bounce big. Gore surges and Bush drops; after the bouncing stops, Gore leads Bush by 2 points.