Poll Position

(As the losing party in 2000, Democrats have held their convention first this summer, while the GOP will gather from August 30 to September 2. Democrats wanted to go in early to mid-August but decided not to compete with Olympics coverage. The early start has real implications. Under federal election rules, each party's nominee gets $75 million to finance a general election campaign. A candidate must start spending general election money the moment he becomes a nominee; at that point, he must stop raising money on his own behalf. That means Kerry will have to spread his $75 million over an additional five weeks, while Bush can continue to raise and spend pre-convention money during the same period.)

August 28: Gore tells supporters at a campaign stop in Tallahassee that his dog's arthritis medication cost less than a similar drug prescribed to his mother-in-law, which his aides admit a few days later is substantially incorrect. A spokesman for Bush immediately calls the story part of Gore's "troubling pattern of embellishing and exaggerating his plans and personal experiences." Meanwhile, the gaffe gives reporters an excuse for reprising what Republicans repeatedly claim were Gore's other whoppers, including his purported boast that he invented the Internet, and that he and his wife, Tipper, were the models for the couple in the weeper novel Love Story. For the record, Gore never claimed to have invented the Internet, rather that he "took the initiative in creating the Internet" while in Congress. And Erich Segal, who wrote Love Story, did say Gore was one of the models for the male half of the famous couple but Tipper wasn't the basis for the woman.

(Four years later, Bush faces challenges to his credibility on more serious matters. After more than a year of scouring Iraq, no weapons of mass destruction have been found. And the evidence documenting Saddam Hussein's purported links to the al Qaeda terrorist organization has been criticized as tenuous and speculative, at best.)

September 4: Historically, polls taken immediately after Labor Day are considered especially important by presidential candidates because they are the first that measure the lasting impact of the political conventions. They also mark the moment in the race that many Americans begin to pay serious attention to the candidates.

In the four elections prior to 2000, the candidate ahead at Labor Day has gone on to win the White House. In 2000 the candidates are tied -- just as they were at this point in 1980 and 1960. The 1980 contest broke open in late October, with Ronald Reagan easily defeating President Jimmy Carter. The 1960 race stayed close until the end, with JFK narrowly defeating Nixon. The 2000 race went one better -- it remained a tossup even after Election Day.

September 14: Al Gore appears on the "Late Show with David Letterman" and reads a list of his Top 10 rejected campaign slogans. Slogan No. 9: "Remember America, I gave you the Internet, and I can take it away." Immediately, the "Modern Humorist" Web site denounces Gore, claiming he stole the line from a bumper sticker it produced and distributed at the Democratic convention a month earlier. Not to be outdone, Bush appears on "Letterman" a month later to announce his own Top 10 list, which includes "Will not get sick on Japanese leaders like other President Bushes I know." Their appearances underscore the growing influence the clown princes of late-night TV have on the electorate, particularly younger voters. A widely quoted Pew Research Center study reports that half of all young adults get some of their political news from late-night comedy shows.

September 20: Independent Counsel Robert Ray ends a six-year Whitewater investigation and brings no charges against either Bill or Hillary Clinton. Nationally, the polls continue to show a close race. Gore narrowly leads in a survey conducted during the final week of September. It will be the last time that the Democrat tops Bush in Post-ABC polling.

October 3: The first presidential debate is held at the University of Massachusetts in Boston. Here's a dirty little secret about presidential campaigns: Debates rarely change many voters' minds. The first national surveys conducted immediately after this debate suggest Gore is viewed as the winner, but both candidates are viewed more favorably, and the horse race remains largely unchanged -- a virtual deadlock.

The debate marks the prime-time appearance of the "lockbox," the secure place where Gore says he would put Social Security and Medicare. This debate serves to remind that debates may not switch many votes, but they do reinforce images. Gore's petulant sighs, and stiffly aggressive and incessant references to the "lockbox," make him look like the smart-alecky dweeb everybody hated in seventh grade. Instantly, his performance is parodied by the late-night comics, who in the spirit of equal time, portray Bush as a clueless, fumble-mouthed bumbler whose verbal boners include nonsense words like "strategery."

(What are the flashpoints -- existing negative stereotypes -- for the candidates to avoid in 2004? Bush must dispel the perception that he's rigid, insensitive to the needs of average Americans and a clueless tool of his advisers who misled the country on Iraq. Kerry needs to use the debates to help convince voters he's not just another Massachusetts lefty, doesn't flip-flop on the issues and isn't chillier than Harvard Square in February. )

October 11: The second presidential debate is held at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C.

October 12: The bombing of the USS Cole kills 17 sailors in Yemen. Initial suspects include Hamas, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Over the next two weeks, the Clinton administration links the attack to Saudi fugitive Osama bin Laden, but the president of Yemen and the FBI caution that it is too soon to conclude that bin Laden was behind the bombing.

October 17: The third and final presidential debate is held in a town hall format at Washington University in St. Louis. It one of the least-watched presidential debates ever. Barely one in four television households bothers to watch. While the debates again do not change voters' choices, they change perceptions of the two candidates: Both Gore and Bush are viewed with heightened skepticism, and Gore in particular suffers a sharp drop in his credibility rating. On the other hand, Harvard researchers tracking the campaign find that the public's ability to recognize Bush's and Gore's positions on key issues has risen by 25 percent during the debate period. They also find the proportion of the country following the presidential campaign, and thinking and talking about it, has doubled during the 2 1/2-week debate period. As a rule, shifts in interest and motivation close to Election Day are critical. Few voters switch their preferences late in the campaign. Instead, victory often hinges on late deciders and which campaign can persuade more of its supporters to go to the polls, particularly the weak partisans or people for whom voting is not a habit, such as many young voters.

November 2: Bush's October Surprise comes two days late when the candidate confirms accounts that he was arrested and pleaded guilty to driving under the influence of alcohol when he was 30. The news comes as the national polls suggest Bush continues to hold a narrow lead, with the election still too close to call.