Gutierrez Is Pick for Commerce Secretary

Carlos Gutierrez would be the first Latino in the post.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist James Poterba, the top choice to replace N. Gregory Mankiw as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has declined the post, sources inside and outside the White House said. Poterba told White House officials he did not want to move to Washington and disrupt his teenage children's lives.

Stanford University's John Cogan, a top economist for President George H.W. Bush, has declined invitations to join the administration as a point man for Social Security reform, White House officials say.

White House officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said both cases involved personal circumstances and were not a reflection of the desirability of White House employment. The officials asserted that the new team at the National Economic Council and the Council of Economic Advisers will be involved in crafting policies that will make up the core of Bush's plans to overhaul Social Security and the tax code.

But some Republican economists say the administration's top economic jobs have been marginalized, while their inhabitants have been publicly humiliated.

"Why would you want to take a job where you have no influence?" asked Bruce Bartlett of the conservative National Center for Policy Analysis. "What's the point?"

Stephen Friedman, who had said last week that he planned to step down as Bush's chief economic adviser, submitted a letter of resignation yesterday saying he planned to return to the private sector.

The dismissals of Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill and chief economic adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey two years ago signaled that Bush would accept no dissent or friction in his administration, Bartlett said.

Treasury Secretary John W. Snow is seen as more of a promoter of White House policymaking than a policymaker, and Snow faces anonymous quotes predicting his departure. "It doesn't look like the White House treats its economic advisers very well, regardless of competence or loyalty," Bartlett said.

Among those mentioned as a possible Snow successor is New York Gov. George E. Pataki, who said in Utica, N.Y., yesterday that he is not interested. When asked why his name keeps popping up for one Bush administration job or another, Pataki replied, "God only knows."