Election 2004: Analysis

Thomas E. Mann, senior fellow of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, takes questions and comments the day after the 2004 election.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Arlington, Va.: Given Bush's popular and electoral vote win, the GOP's pickups in the Senate (perhaps to 55 seats), and with Tom Daschle's loss in mind, do you think the Democrats will be as vehement, or as successful, in filibustering judicial appointments in the next two years? Is it worth the political capital to them, and do they have the strength and will to do it?

Thomas Mann: The real test comes with the first Supreme Court nomination. Will President Bush seek some accommodation with the Democratic minority or send forward a nomination most satisfactory to his conservative base? If the latter, I expect the Democrats to use every weapon at their disposal including a filibuster. But their depleted ranks will make this difficult to sustain over time.

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Alexandria, Va.: As a Republican, I found the Senate results even more amazing that those in the Presidential race. Right now, it looks like the GOP won every race they plausibly had a chance to, with the single exception of Colorado, for a gain of 4 seats. In comparison, both Nixon and Reagan, despite their landslide presidential victories, each saw their party lose 2 seats in the Senate voting in 1972 and 1984. Any explanation for this, aside from continued GOP gains in the formerly Democratic Solid South?

Thomas Mann: I believe it reflects the fact that virtually of all the competititve races were fought on Republican territory, that is, in Red states. This put the Democrats at a tremendous disadvantage.

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Laurel, Md.: Who are the early Democratic favorites, from the South, for 2008. Mike Easeley of North Carolina? Others? Who are the Republican favorites post-Bush?

Thomas Mann: Shouldn't we let a decent interval pass before beginning the 2008 campaign? There are no favorites in either party but lots of ambition.

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Laurel, Md.: At most three states changed their minds since last time.

Have both parties run out of ideas?

Thomas Mann: The country has sorted itself ideologically into the two political parties, and those partisan attachments have hardened in recent years. It will take an extraordinary event and act of leadership to break this partisan divide. I thought 9/11 might provide such an opportunity but it was not seized.

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Kennesaw, Ga.: Mr. Mann: Good afternoon and thanks for doing this chat. There will be a lot of post-mortems done on such a close race. Was Kerry the best candidate for the Democrats? Was he crippled by the long public controversy over the Swift Boat Veterans' claims? Did he hit Bush hard enough during the debates?

What is your view on the decisive factor in this race?

Thomas Mann: My view is that Kerry was a plausible nominee and eventually proved himself an acceptable alternative to the President, one who in the debates clearly passed the threshold for entering the White House. I think the President won by countering a negative referendum on Iraq and the economy with a reputation for strength on terrorism, and most importantly by using opposition to same-sex marriage and a tremendously effective ground game to mobilize religious conservatives.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr Mann,

I have a question about the so-called 527 organizations and their influence (or maybe lack thereof?) in the election.

I am a GOPer and am obviously glad that the president was re-lected. My initial temptation is to use this as a chance to gloat and lord it over George Soros and his ilk. However, seems to me that the whole 527 movement is a result of one big loophole in McCain-Feingold. I can't beleive that Congress intended for this when they passed the campaign reform bill.

Isn't this a good opporunity for the new Congress to close the loophole and enact some true reform?

I really don't like the 527 influence from either side.

Thomas Mann: Much 527 activity in this election was financed by unregulated or soft money. This was not a result of a loophole in McCain-Feingold but a failure by the FEC to enforce prior law. I think Congress will take steps to deal with this soon. However, one shouldn't overstate the importance of 527s. They were much less important than the campaigns of the candidates and the parties.

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Bowie, Md.: The most striking difference between Red and Blue states is population density. Kerry just about swept the top 20 and Bush the bottom 30.

Thomas Mann: That's correct. It also holds within states: Democrats do best in urban centers, Republicans in outer suburbs and rural areas.

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Moscow, Russia: Mr. Mann,

What do you see happening in John Kerry's political future, specifically, do you think he will run in 2008?

Also, the Democratic Party is at the cross-roads right now. On one hand, with the "moral values" playing such an important (and apparently underestimated role) in the outcome of this election, they seem out of touch with "mainstream" American values which today mean conservative values (abortion and gay rights are hot buttons). On the other hand, many democrats and political analysts on both sides feel that after the Clinton compromises with the Republicans, the Democratic Party lost a large part of its identity (nowadays carried on in its old form by the likes of Howard Dean than those of John Kerry). By trying to be moderate, it lost part of its base and this can be partially responsible for Republicans gaining ground nation-wide.

How do you envision the future of the Democratic Party, and do you believe there is a need for radical change and really being able to call itself the "opposition", or is this dangerous in an already split country, especially in the time of war, and Democrats should compromise instead? (It sounds harsh, but Republicans "divide and conquer" strategy worked for them.)

Thank you for your time.

Thomas Mann: I doubt that Kerry runs again for president. If he does, he will have a lot of competition.

I don't see much value in an ideological battle within the Democratic party right now. They actually agree on many issues and stand in clear opposition to the Republicans. How to make peace with cultural and religious conservatives without abandoning principles dear to them and their supporters is a very tricky matter, one that should occupy a good deal of their thinking over the next several years.

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Washington, D.C.: As a result of Bush's election, what effect do you see on the labor movement?

Thomas Mann: Private sector labors unions continue to suffer losses in their membership while public sector and service unions grow. They all invested heavily in the 2004 election and will no doubt that this loss hard. They can expect little comfort from a second-term Bush administration and will likely invest more resources in trying to build their memberships.

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New York, N.Y.: Mr. Mann,
Could you let us know when the last time was that the country swung this far Republican (Congress, governors, and Supreme Court -- don't know about state legislators)
Thanks

Thomas Mann: 1920s. And that was followed by the New Deal.

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Boston, Mass.: Hi Thomas,
Thanks for talking with us, I'm sure you had a long night. What changes do you think Bush will be initiating? Usually candidates make policy proposals on the stump, election-year promises that they then try to redeem. I can't for the life of me remember any such promises from Bush. Any ideas?

Thomas Mann: Bush is very ambitious. His "ownership society" entails restructuring the tax code to eliminate taxation of unearned income and a restructuring of social insurance programs (social security, medicare, medicaid) to rely more on individual savings and responsibility. These proposals will face titanic battles in Congress and the country and are by no means guaranteed to be enacted.

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Oakton, Va.: What do you think about the evangelicals' impact on the election? Karl Rove had projected, if I recall correctly, that 4 million more would vote in 2004 than in 2000. It is very interesting that 4 million is also the approximate difference between Bush's 0.5 million popular vote loss to Gore in 2000 and his 3.5 million vote win over Kerry in 2004!

Thomas Mann: Rove appears to have succeeded in increasing the turnout of evangelicals in battleground states. This may well be the key to Bush's victory.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Mr. Mann,

How did the Democratic Party with roughly half the country behind them in 2000 and 2004 based on popular vote in the presidential races manage to become a minority party at every level, state and federal? What would be the wisest approach for the Democrats at the national between now and the '06 elections? Thank you.

Thomas Mann: A minority but a competitive minority at every level of government. The loss of the South is part of their problem. Another is partisan gerrymandering. After dominating American politics for many decades, they have not yet figured out a way to build a new, sustainable majority coalition. Clinton started that project but it was interrupted, party by Clinton himself, partly by the serrendipitous outcome of the 2000 election. Being in full opposition during the 2006 midterm elections may provide an opportunity for them to gather themselves.

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Erlangen, Germany: Do you think that the war in Iraq and Mr. Bush's handling of it has had any impact on the outcome of this election? If yes, what kind of impact?

Thomas Mann: I think Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq and his handling of the aftermath nearly cost him reelection. He decisively lost the referendum on Iraq but compensated with other issues and appeals.

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Arlington, Va.: Does Kerry's concession mean that the provisional ballots in Ohio and elsewhere will not be counted?

Thomas Mann: No, valid provisional ballots will be counted and included in the official returns.

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La Crosse, Wis.: How do you think Bush's next term will shape up in comparison with the last four years in regards to social and foriegn policies -- more of the same or will he move more to the left or right?

Thomas Mann: I wish I knew. Bush may well feel that his first-term actions have been affirmed by the electorate and keep moving in the same direction. This will make for fireworks at home and difficulties abroad.

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Germantown, Md.: What do you see as Bush's biggest challenge over the next four years?

Thomas Mann: Coping with the consequences of his first term: staggering budget deficits, federal revenues at their lowest level as a share of the economy in a half century, intense spending pressure for defense and homeland security, a mess in Iraq with no happy ending in sight, and serious security threats across the globe, from North Korea to Iran, from loose WMDs to terrorist organizations with little sympathy or affection from the rest of the world.

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Washington, D.C.: Bush just said, to people who voted for Kerry, that he would try to earn their trust. Fabulous! Please list five ways he could do that.

Thomas Mann: Purely rhetorical or symbolic steps won't work. Genuine negotiation and compromise with minority Democrats and a willingness to occasionally take on his conservative base will be required.

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Washington, D.C.: There has been much analysis of the ideological divide between the coasts and the heartland.
But isn't that divide really between the heartland and the rest of the western world ?
And what does it portend for the future of this country ?

Thomas Mann: I think American has been moving in a more socially tolerant direction for some years. Feeling under seige from Roe v. Wade and the liberalization of society, religious fundementalists became active politically and aligned their fate with the Republican party. Younger cohorts are much more culturally liberal or moderate, and the country will continue to move in that direction.

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Crystal City, Va.: Does the failure of the Dems to win the day yesterday mean the unceremonsious dumping of Terry McAuliffe? How was/is McAuliffe viewed within the party, and who is in line to replace him?

Thomas Mann: McAuliffe did an excellent job rebuilding the party infrastructure. The Democratic party organization did not lose this election. But I understand he has decided to leave his post.

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Pensacola, Fla.: The GOP claims that Bush won a "mandate". I can't understand this. Fifty-one percent is hardly a mandate isn't it? The fact is that the majority of Americand didn't vote for Bush last time, and nearly didn't this team (as far as percentages). How can he "bring this country together"?

Thomas Mann: Mandates are not objective realities but subjective interpretations of elections sold successfully by the winning candidate or party. The battle over this election's mandate has just begun.

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Detroit, Mich.: Who is in line to replace Daschle as Senate MInority leader?

Thomas Mann: Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic whip, is the only announced candidate and the favorite. He might be challenged by Chris Dodd, Dick Durbin, or Kent Conrad, among others.

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Columbia, Md.: What do you think the chances are of Hillary Clinton being the next minority leader of the Senate? Why do I have this nagging feeling that everything is going according to plan...

Thomas Mann: I think both Clintons genuinely wanted John Kerry to win. If Hillary aspires to the presidency, I would recommend against seeking the party leadership in the Senate.

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Thomas Mann: Thanks for your questions. I enjoyed our online chat.

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