Who came out ahead after the AFL-CIO Democratic candidate forum? Is Dean, as Lieberman and other candidates have alleged, too liberal too be elected? Will Arnold Schwarzenegger run for California Governor?
washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Terry Neal was online to discuss the AFL-CIO Democratic presidential forum, Democratic infighting and other political news.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
________________________________________________
Terry Neal: Thanks for joining me this afternoon. I'm looking forward to our chat. So let's get started!
Terry
________________________________________________
Gaithersburg, Md.:
One might have thought that people supporting Dean would have applauded your column "Will the Real Howard Dean Please Stand Up?" for demonstrating that Dr. Dean is not some wild eyed commie. Why do you think you received so much angry e-mail?
washingtonpost.com: Will the Real Howard Dean Please Stand Up? (Post, July 31)
Terry Neal: Hi. Thanks for reading the column. I actually provided the incorrect link there. The column that angered Dean's supporters was not that one, but one that I wrote earlier about some of Dean's shortcomings in interviews, ie, lack of preparation. In any case, Dean's folks are wildly enthusiastic about him, some to the point of defensiveness, I think. But that's ok, and hey, it's great for the candidate.
________________________________________________
washingtonpost.com:
Dean Struggles With His Voice (Post, June 25)
________________________________________________
Stanford, Calif.:
I enjoyed your column.
Ralph Nader has said that he will weigh entering the race based on the success of the Dean and Kucinich campaigns.
Considering that if the Nader votes (even half, or a third) went to Gore in '00, there would be a Dem in the White House right now, isn't there something to be said about a candidate who can unite the base?
Besides, Dean is adamant that he's not a "liberal" (whatever that means). His policy positions could easily allow him to pivot to appeal to the center of the electorate after the primary. (Or as your column mentioned, even during the primary.)
I'd appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.
Terry Neal: Great question. Thanks. I believe if you look at the way Dean governed, rather than the way he has campaigned this year, it's tough to categorize him as a liberal. However, if he gets the nomination, the Bush campaign will spend tens of millions trying to do just that. Given that fact, it might be quite difficult for Dean to shake that perception, even if it's not true.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.:
How much of the Democrat's left turn (except Lieberman) is a result of the Nader factor in 2000?
Terry Neal: Oh, I don't think any of it, really. I think it has much more to do with the intensity of the hatred the left-wing of the Democratic party has for George W. Bush. I think it also has much to do with the fact that so many Democrats feel that their leaders in Washington have let them down and have caved in to Bush. Thirdly, I think last year's election fiasco convinced many in the party that it's better to confront Bush and the Republicans forcefully than it is not to. That's my guess, anyway.
________________________________________________
Bethesda, Md.:
The Draft Clark people remind me of those overgrown kids who camped out in anticipation of Star Wars Episode I, then refused to admit it was a lousy flick. This idea of Wes Clark as Democratic savior seems a bit unrealistic. What do you think?
Terry Neal: Ha! That's funny. Although I don't know how the Clark supporters are going to feel about being compared to Trekkies. But it is a good question. I think I understand where they are coming from in the sense that Clark, a military veteran, would negate many of the arguments that are made against Democrats with regard to their softness on national defense. But the bigger issue is that while Clark may be a hero and potential savior to some, the vast majority of the American public has no idea who he is. That means he'd have to spend a heck of a lot of time and money boosting his name recognition. And with six months to go before the first primary, I don't think there's that much time, nor do I think he can raise that much money to make it work. Perhaps if he had jumped in this time last year, he could make a go of it. But I think it's too late now.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.:
Dean's on the covers of Time and Newsweek. He showed up on Larry King, and then the Today Show. Does it really matter how well he did at an event that's a CSPAN-only affair?
Terry Neal: Well, yes, it does matter. And for this reason...No one may be watching C-SPAN at 9 p.m. on a Tuesday night, but the people who are watching the election are watching. And they are the ones who define these candidates. And Larry King's producers follow what is written about the way the candidates perform at events like the one in Chicago last night. That's why a candidate can make a major flub at a campaign event attended by four people. If one reporter is watching, the entire world can know about it shortly thereafter. Remember, good coverage begets good coverage, and bad coverage begets bad coverage in this media saturated world we live in.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.:
There is renewed speculation about Al Gore entering the race. What impact, if any, do you think this will have? Are you aware of any polls indicating where he would stand among the "top tier?" Does he stand a chance against Bush?
Terry Neal: First of all, I don't think either Al Gore or Hillary Clinton are going to be jumping into this race. But both a number of polls have shown they would be right there at the top of the pack if they decided to run. I think much of that is because this early in the nominating contest, before people have really paid attention to the race or the personalities, people tend to support the people they know. But I think Gore's and Clinton's names will begin to fade as people get to know these other candidates better.
As for your question about whether he'd have a chance against Bush, well any answer would be pure speculation. But I'd have to say sure, he'd have a chance. On one hand, more people voted for Gore in 2000 than Bush. But on the other hand, Bush is more popular now than he was when he ran in 2000. But who knows what the state of play or the political landscape will be this time next year.
________________________________________________
Cambria, Calif.:
What is the latest thinking inside the beltway concerning the possibility of either, or both, Joe Biden and Wesley Clark entering the race for the Democratic nomination, and what effect do you think that would have on the other candidates, especially those not currently doing so well.
Terry Neal: Re: Clark, see earlier answer...But on top of that, I would say the chatter inside the beltway is that it's more likely Biden will jump in than Clark. But who knows. I'm not even sure they know at this point. I think Biden could be interesting. He has a lot of stature and a lot of experience on intelligence/defense issues. He's fairly well known. He's well spoken. And if he could just figure out of way to give his own speeches...OK, calm down. I'm just joking.
________________________________________________
Chicago, ll.:
Did you think Dean did bad last night? Please size up the field based upon what we all saw on CSPAN.
Terry Neal: No, I think Dean did all right last night. I think he did better than, say, he did in that South Carolina debate a couple months ago. I actually don't think any of the candidates really hurt themselves. I mean, Lieberman certainly didn't help himself with labor folks with his comments on trade and vouchers. But some people might admire the fact that he didn't pander and try to hide his position, as some politicians do in those circumstances. I thought Kucinich was awful entertaining. I thought Gephardt made a pretty strong appeal, but might have gone a little overboard with the podium pounding stuff. I think Kerry and Edwards were ok, and certainly didn't hurt themselves. But I don't know that they didn't anything to help themselves extraordinarily. Interestingly, Sharpton, as usual, got some of the biggest applause and I believe the only standing ovation of the night for one of his comments.
________________________________________________
Statesboro, Ga.:
John Edwards fund raising peaked in the first quarter. His polls have not started to climb. Is he really running for VP?
Terry Neal: Yes, I think Edwards situation is really interesting. He was automatically annoined by the national media, it seems, as a first-tier candidate. Then his fund-raising seemed to validate that point. But he has yet to catch fire in any of the really important early states. For instance, Edwards was supposed to be the guy who took South Carolina. But the latest poll shows him running fourth, behind Lieberman, Gephardt and Sharpton. It's still early, and a lot of things could happen, but he needs to be showing some movement in the polls. As to your second question, I do hear that speculation, but of course the candidate would never acknowledge that he's running to be the second banana. It is interesting that Edwards has not resigned from the Senate to run, though. It will also be interesting to see what happens with regard to his Senate seat. If he doesn't win the nomination and loses the Senate race, he will have been just a blip on the screen.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.:
With Sen. Hollings retiring at the end of his term, what are the rumor mills inside the beltway saying about the new senator from South Carolina? With a Rebublican governor heading the state, is it a lost cause for the Democrats to hold onto the seat?
Terry Neal: I haven't paid that much attention to the political maneuvering in that state or heard much here in Washington. I do know that the R's were already eyeing Hollings' seat as a potential competitive race even before he announced his resignation. According to the National Journal's Hotline, there are a number of Democrats considering jumping in the race. But the scuttlebutt is that it's going to be very, very tough for the Democrats to retain that seat, given the rightward tilt of that state. Democrats had been begging Hollings to run because with him out, it will make it much more difficult for the Dems to regain the Senate majority next year.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.:
There has been more than a subtle indication that Gephardt may be an early victim from the field of nine. Being that Gephardt has done this before, albeit more than a decade ago, and his support amongst organized labor (the Dems greatest gift regarding turnout) why are so many media outlets labeling Gephardt as a potential early departure. I don't believe his last fundraising quarter is a good indication.
Terry Neal: Well, there are a number of reasons. The fund-raising issue is just one. But another is the fact that Iowa, which was supposed to be a Gephardt stronghold, is turning out to be problematic. Many of the activists are wary. And Dean is giving him a run for his money there. And he's hardly registering in New Hampshire. But I think you're correct: It's too early to count him out. We'll see.
________________________________________________
Somewhere, USA:
How is the current excitement about gay marriage (and gay bishops) going to play out in the '04 election? Will things have calmed down by then, or is this going to draw a lot of Christian conservative to the campaigns and the polls?
Terry Neal: Great question. I think the extent to which this might become an issue depends on who the Democratic nominee is. If it's someone like Lieberman or Kerry, both of whom oppose gay marriage, I think it will be less of an issue. If it's someone like Dean, who signed the nation's first civil unions bill in New Hampshire, it might become a bigger issue. But even Dean has been kind of wishy washy on the issue of gay marriage. I guess this is a long winded way of saying for it to become a major issue, there has to be a stark difference between the positions of the two candidates.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.:
At this point, is Lieberman anything more than a drowning man, reaching out for someone to drag down with him?
Terry Neal: Hmmmm. Let me guess what your opinion is on the matter? Just joking...Look, it's too early to call Lieberman a "drowning man." His boat may be taking on some water, but he's not too far from the shore. He still leads in the national polls and in South Carolina as well. But, as I wrote today, there is not a lot of enthusiam right now for him among the people who tend to vote in Democratic primaries. We'll just have to see how it plays out...
________________________________________________
Terry Neal: Well folks, I've gotta run. It's been great, as always...Sorry I could not answer every question. But there were a lot of really great questions today. If I missed you, maybe I'll get you next time.
Take care,
Terry
________________________________________________
