New Cuba Travel Limits May Sway Voters

A second group of Miami-Dade Cuban Americans, numbering about 75,000, is composed of men and women who fled the island in the 1980s and '90s. This group has closer ties to Cuba and more relatives back home.

"They like to go back for weddings, for when someone gets sick, for the birthdays, for the graduations. They send remittances," Bendixen said. "They would never be supportive of Fidel Castro in any way, but they're not obsessed with his removal."

Bendixen's poll suggested that 40 percent of that group supported Kerry and 28 percent backed Bush. Thirty-one percent were undecided.

A third group contains about 50,000 Cuban American voters, Bendixen estimates. As American-born children of Cubans who left the island, the segment has for the first time become large enough to poll during this election cycle.

"We are finding that Cuba policy is of no special interest to them," Bendixen said. Respondents in this group backed Kerry over Bush by 58 percent to 32 percent, with 10 percent undecided.

Overall, Bendixen's poll found that 69 percent of Cuban Americans favored Bush to 21 percent for Kerry, with 10 percent undecided. If accurate, that would be a fat Republican margin -- but a significant drop for Bush, who received an estimated 80 to 85 percent of the Cuban American vote in Miami-Dade in 2000.

A Florida International University poll of Cuban American registered voters in Miami-Dade and neighboring Broward County found earlier this year that about 60 percent supported Bush, while about 25 percent said they remained undecided. The poll was conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and NBC-6.

Lazo, a counselor for the developmentally disabled, left Cuba on a raft 12 years ago. After a stay in Miami, he moved to a town north of Seattle. He is now a Washington National Guard medic.

Deployed to Iraq, he followed Cuba policy over the Internet. On leave, he flew to Miami in hopes of visiting his sons before new licenses were required.

"Nobody knows whether I'm going to give my life, but at the same time, the president doesn't let me go to Cuba to see my children," he said. "I think that's not fair."