Online, Political and Influential

Survey: Visitors to Candidate Web Sites Are Opinion Leaders

Freaks? Geeks? Or trendsetters?

The question of who, exactly, has been frequenting candidate Web sites, online political discussion groups and campaign blogs this election season has left many observers scratching their heads. Some have said they are, mostly, college students. Or aging ex-hippies. Or tech geeks.

But a new survey, one of the first systematic looks at these otherwise faceless "netizens," suggests that they tend to be white, well-educated and, disproportionately, opinion leaders in their social circles.

The study, which was conducted by George Washington University, the polling firm RoperASW and Nielsen/Net Ratings, found that 69 percent of those queried -- those researchers considered to be "online political citizens" -- qualify as "influentials," the sort of people who have an outsized influence on what their friends and colleagues think about everything from political candidates to restaurants. By comparison, the study said, 10 percent of the general population qualifies as influential.

Researchers asked 11 questions they said can determine whether someone is particularly influential. Among them: whether they have recently contacted a politician, written a letter to the editor or made a public speech.

The survey estimated that these online trendsetters make up about 7 percent of the general population -- a statistic they said helps underscore the political importance of this constituency. "It's clear that candidates, political parties and issue advocacy groups who wish to reach the people who influence everyone else must look to the Internet," the report said. "They will find there a high concentration of opinion leaders and political activists."

The study, which was conducted late last year and was based on two parallel surveys -- one online, the other off -- also found these activists are twice as likely as those in the general population to have a college degree. Eighty-six percent are white; 42 percent have incomes over $75,000; 62 percent are male; 36 percent are ages 18 to 34; and 44 percent had not previously been involved in a political campaign in traditional ways such as attending a campaign event.

But one obvious question remains: If these people are so influential, why has Howard Dean's Internet-driven presidential campaign faltered so badly?

"That is the big question," said Carol Darr, the director of GWU's Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet. "I think the answer that 'Dean brought them to the dance and they left with [John F.] Kerry' pretty much sums it up."