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NBA Post-Draft Analysis

NBA Picks and Trades

Mike Wise
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 25, 2004; 12:00 PM

The Wizards traded Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner for Antawn Jamison of the Dallas Mavericks. Jamison is expected to become "one of the premier forwards in the Eastern Conference." Also, the second round of the NBA draft has become the bargaining center to find the players "with unrecognized talent and potential" to become the game's fastest-rising stars.

Post columnist Mike Wise was online Friday, June 25, at Noon ET for a post-draft analysis on the latest trades and picks.

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Mike Wise: Sorry about the tardiness. Thanks for logging on and I'll try and get to as many questions as possible today. In honor of all the children taken in yesterday's draft, I will answer according to age. Deep, introspective questions by 16-year-olds get preference. : ). All right, here we go.

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Germantown, MD: Your article this morning was fantastic. Great insight and illustrating your point with the remarks of Jameer Nelson's father. Quick question, with the drafting of a center in the second round, how are the Wizards going to deal with the shuffle of Haywood, Brown, Thomas, Jeffries, and the new kid at the center position? Isn't it a bit crowded up in the trees now? Thanks.

-Amar

washingtonpost.com: NBA Can Be a Bit Short-Sighted (Post, June 25)

Mike Wise: Amar, thank you for the praise. I agree, it will be crowded up front for the Wizards, especially deciding who starts between Kwame Brown and Etan Thomas -- provided Thomas is still around at training camp. But....the one thing Joe Dumars said in Detroit that turned out to be prophetic, "Unless you got Shaq and Kobe, everybody else is trying to do with bodies and numbers." Translation: the more big healthy bodies you have, the better.

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Rockville, Md.: What was the best trade of the Draft?

Mike Wise: Best trade of the draft? Right now, I must go with the Wizards deal to get Jamison. Not that Jamison is a savior. On the contrary, he can be a defensive liability at times. But, every team goes into an offseason trying to meet their needs: more big men, starting point guard, etc. The Wizards' main needs: changing the dynamics in their locker room. Once Stackhouse and Laettner were traded, that goal was immediately accomplished.

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Adelphi, Md.: Hi Mike,
Great column. You had it right that it doesn't even matter who the Wizards got - they needed to dump Jerry Stackhouse. I hope Ernie Grunfeld will continue to wheel and deal, because the Wizards still lack toughness.
The tricky part is deciding which young player to trade. Losing Jarvis Hayes would be the same kind of mistake as losing Ben Wallace and Richard Hamilton. The guy works hard, does what he's told, and plays defense.

washingtonpost.com: NBA Can Be a Bit Short-Sighted (Post, June 25)

For Washington Fans, One Good Reason To Love Dallas (Post, June 24)

Mike Wise: Mr. or Ms. Adelphi, thank you. And you hit the nail on the head: Losing Jarvis Hayes would be akin to giving up on one of those Pistons who won a ring. I don't think under any circumstances the Wizards will part with him now -- unless Shaquille O'Neal decides that his post-hoop FBI career is better served living in Washington.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Do you think Jamison will be a consistent 20 and 10 player for the Wizards? How does his acquisition affect Kwame Brown?

Mike Wise: Antawn Jamison may not be a 20-10 player on a team where Larry Hughes and Gilbert Arenas will be taking a lot of shots. But he can be a 17-8 player and he is mature enough to actually nurture Kwame Brown instead of threatening him professionally. I think if you ask the Wizards to a man, they would be happy about this trade -- although deep down they are still muttering to each other, "Does this mean I might have to play D?"

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Washington, D.C.: This trade will go down as one of the worst in franchise history. The only saving grace is that Shaun Livingston was picked with the 4th pick. If he was available at #5, and the Wizards passed on him or picked and traded him, in four or five years people would burn down the MCI Center.

Mike Wise: Thank you, Wes Unseld, for weighing in today.
Seriously, getting Jamison was not getting Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury or something of that magnitude. But it helped an awful team get at least slightly better and made the MCI Center working conditions improve. Isn't there anybody you work with who just brings the place down? And Shaun Livingston? Nice player, incredibly gifted with peripheral vision of Bird and Magic. But let's not go overboard. He is not an all-star for at least five years.

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Washington, D.C.: Mike: In your opinion, and ignoring attitude, who is the better player when healthy -- Stackhouse or Jamison? It's close, but it's probably Stackhouse. But then factor in attitude, and Jamison is probably the better player. But is he $5.5 million better this year? $6 million better next year, $7 million better the year after that, and $16 million the year after that? Because his contract says he is.
Also, I've read that Arenas and Jamison weren't the best of friends on Golden State. Is that true? Do you know anything on that point?

Mike Wise: Great counterpoint. Especially the money part. But one, you cannot ignore attitude in a league where five players must function as one. It's not baseball or football in that regard. Look at Kobe and Shaq. The greatest two players of their generation should win five titles together at least, but they might not win another because of how they feel about each other. I don't know whether Arenas and Jamison were tight or distant at Golden State, but I do know that people that have shared experiences usually end up bonding somewhere down the road. I mean, remember the kid who you hated in high school and you saw him at the reunion and thought, "You know what, he's not the idiot I thought he was." Well, no one said that about me at my reunion, but you get my drift.

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Washington, D.C.: Mike,

As you wrote in your column, Jamison's strength is his offense, not defense. Does this trade stress the need for the Wizards to re-sign their best defensive player, Etan Thomas?

Mike Wise: I would like to see them re-sign Etan, because at times he really worked his butt off this season. Even through some of his bone-headed plays and offensive limitations, he wanted that basketball -- almost as much as a guy like Ben Wallace. But I think the Wizards see him as almost a faux tough guy that puts on a nice act when he swings his elbows but can't do the little things that win games at the end. So he might be gone.

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Washington, D.C.: Dear Mike,

I was excited about the trade with Dallas. This was a brilliant move - can't believe they actually pulled it off.

Do you know what other moves the Wizards are trying to make? What position(s) are they trying to strengthen? Whom might they go for?

I'm guessing the Wizards should probably focus on strengthening the Center position.

Regarding Shooting Guard: Does Washington's not protecting Juan Dixon during the expansion team's selection indicate that Wizard's management isn't confident about Juan coming off the bench at SG.
Could Jarvis Hayes come off the bench at both Small Forward (behind Jamison) and Shooting Guard (behind Houghes), or is he only suited for the SF spot?

washingtonpost.com: For Washington Fans, One Good Reason To Love Dallas (Post, June 24)

Mike Wise: Wizards need a big, ornery veteran like Charles Oakley five years ago or Brad Miller now to bang bodies and get big rebounds and throw good outlet passes to the guards and Jamison. Period.

As for Dixon, he may be gone in some kind of deal. They think Blake can buy into a system that showcases other stars better. Jarvis Hayes can play a lot of different positions, but I think he'll eventually evolve into a natural small forward.

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Alexandria, VA: Hey Mike, give us your a prediction straight up. What is Kwame going to be averaging points and rebounds next year, im hoping for 15 and 10. Is this reasonable thinking and what is your predicition? Thanks!;

Mike Wise: Straight up? You're right. Kwame will be averaging 15 and 10 next year -- in missed free throws and turnovers. It's not about the numbers with Kwame, it's about the intangibles. Does he go to the floor for that loose ball with the game tied at 90 and only 20 seconds left? That's what I'd like to see. The numbers? I mean, you could average 15 and 10 in a meaningless April game against the Magic. But if you want to put me under the fire: Kwame Brown will average 13 points and seven rebounds and two blocks per game.

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Washington, DC: If Indiana is willing to trade Al Harrington for the 10th pick to Cleveland, why couldn't the Wizards trade the 5th and Laettner to Indiana for Harrington, and then separately shop Stackhouse? Harrington is younger and about as good as Jamison, and he is getting 1/2 the money Jamison is. That's the better move.

Mike Wise: Did you see Al Harrington in the playoffs? He had like two decent games and melted when the game mattered. I've always loved his athleticism and his desire, but he's what my JV coach used to call, "Million Dollar Move, Five Cent Shot." He looks great getting to the rim, but cannot finish. I'd rather have a guy who can consistently knock down jump shots. Also, separately shopping Stack would be tough. Between injury, contract and bad rep., they had to take what they could get now.

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Rockville, MD: It was frustrating to see 3 former Wizards win the Championship. Now the tables have turned and the Wizards have 3 former Golden state players.

How do these guys get along? Did they all play at the same time in San Fran? Do you think they will get along, esepeacilly, Jamison and Areanas? What is there history?

Mike Wise: One day, Bay Area columnists will write about all those Warriors who won titles as Wizards. Of course, we will be dead and gone.

I don't know how they all got along. And while I might be contradicting myself a little here, you don't have to like the player you play with. I've seen countless teams who hated each other win titles. Look at Kobe and Shaq, they don't necessarily hang out. And at times they disliked each other. But they always respected each other's abilities. That's the key. There was acrimony, but also respect.

So if they can do that, never mind what restaurant or club they're going to after the game together.

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El Paso, TX: Is Gilbert Arenas really a legitimate No. 1? Do you think the Wizards need to get a veteran point guard before next season?

Mike

Mike Wise: No, Arenas is another shoot-first, pass-later point guard. But aren't they all now, other than maybe Kidd? A nice backup would help, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Blake emerge this season.

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Bethesda, Md.: Mr. Wise,

Great columns the last couple of days regarding the WIzards and the Draft. According to an ESPN report, the NBA union president says that they feel that a minimum age requirement is not necessary. He also said that when the negotiations for a new CBA begins this summer, that issue will not go very far if the topic was brought up. I personally want to see this requirement passed because the game is downright awful at times. Is there a chance that this requirement can still go through?

Mike Wise: Thanks for reading. Having just come to the area, it means a lot.

As to your question, Billy Hunter, the executive director of the players union, is making this age-requirement thing his mantra. But this is also hard-line negotiating. Hunter knows that's what David Stern wants most, an age limit. And he also knows it is what's best for the game, whether it is labeled unconstitutional or not. My take? At the very last minute that owners and players are about to sign the agreement, Stern gives Hunter a major economic concession that leads to Hunter giving Stern his age limit. They went through this in 1998 with the drug agreement, which Hunter also finally gave in to.

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Washington, DC: One thing the Wizards have been lacking for years (except when Jordan played) was a true, outstanding leader -- an Avery Johnson, Mario Elie type of guy. Jamison doesn't appear to be that type of guy either. Who do you think will emerge as the team leader? Hughes is too quiet, Arenas a little too all over the place to be a leader. Kwame seems very intelligent and well-spoken, but until he's older and has fulfilled his potential, no one's going to listen to him. Jeffries, Thomas, Hayes and Dixon -- all pretty quiet too. Haywood is extroverted, but his effort is hot and cold, so he won't be the leader. Will the team's leadership fall to Jamison, and if so, is that a good thing?

Mike Wise: Good insight and questions. Really thoughtful. I do believe Jamison has more leadership qualities than he shows on the surface. He's been on three teams now, counting the Wizards, knows the league, knows the players and doesn't buy into the hyperbole machine that once made him chuck the ball about 30 times a game in Golden State. Is he the ultimate answer? No. You still need that veteran who does not say one word, but just goes out and plays hard every night, comes to camp in shape and does not give one thought about changing the culture; it just happens because of who that player is. Now, is he out there? Well, that's Ernie Grunfeld's next chore.

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Spotsylvania, Va.: Mike,
Do you think it is wise for Eddie Jordan to move Kwame Brown to center and have Antawn and Jarvis play the forward positions.

Mike Wise: It's a gamble, but you have to make Kwame accountable at some point and see if he truly is the long-term solution in the pivot.

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Bristow, VA: El Paso took my question. So . . . what's your feelings on Haywood and his role with the team?

Mike Wise: Brendan has to develop more offensively and just work as hard as he possibly can. He'll get minutes and shots if that happens. I know Kwame is worried about "touches" these days, but the thing is, Arenas, Hughes and Jamison are not making everything they throw up. There are a lot of offensive rebounds to be had on that team.

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Houston, Texas: How do you think some of the foreign players will do
relative to the high school kids picked in this draft?
Is scouting foreign players an area that is overlooked
by many NBA teams?

Mike Wise: Well, I'm now down on foreign players because of how bad Peja Stojakovic played in the postseason. But overall, they're well represented in the NBA, can play and, no, scouting overseas is not overlooked. Eastern Europe, China, South America....if there is a good player out there, NBA GMs will find them. Look for much of the African continent to be the next NBA's gold mine in the coming years.

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Bethesda, MD: Mike,
I'm a big Laker fan. What do you think's going to happen there?

Mike Wise: Well, maybe I'm corny and idealistic, but I kind of see it like the next phase in a great but sometimes trying relationship:

Shaq and Kobe have made beautiful music together, despite their differences. They also know they would have a hard time winning without each other.

So, my prediction, which is wild and crazy but what is ultimately going to happen: They will kiss and make-up again in LA-LA land and live happily ever after like some sweet Bethesda couple, until court dates or contracts do them part.

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Washington, DC: I couldn't disagree with you more about your comments on high school players in today's column. College is not a free minor league for the NBA. Players with no interest in school do not belong there. If the NBA is really concerned about the development of younger prospects, it should step up and create a proper minor league system.

Mike Wise: It has a minor league system, but the D League is failing. And while your observations about college are correct -- yes, every on-campus arena is really a cash register that players do not get to see -- that's not the point.

The point is, even if you're not interested in going to school, even if getting a degree is not your educational purpose or career goal and going to the NBA is, the idea that someone who spends 1 to 4 years on a campus of diverse interests and people does not somehow add to your development as a person -- and, by association, a player -- is just ludicrous.

Of course, it does. Am I sympathetic to players from poor backgrounds -- both domestically and internationally -- that need to pay their mothers' phone bills? Yes. They should go pro.

But the large majority of draftees last night were not in that predicament. They wanted the cash now and decided that life experience is not important. Which is fine and okay, if those are the values you were taught.

But don't try to sell me on this "College is going to use me and sell my jersey, so I must go now." No, take out a Lloyds of London insurance policy, meet someone at a party next to a keg who might enlighten you about the world, build up your marketability on national television during March and then go off to work for someone and live large. Maybe the new car and Italian suits can wait until you're 21, no?

The real remedy to the problem is larger insurance policies. If you could ensure Shaun Livingston he would procure $10 million even if he blew out his knee at Duke, then I'm convinced he'd go to school and wait at least a year for the NBA. All right, you got my hot button. Great commentary.



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Charlottesville, Va.: Hey Mike,
If the coaches and GM's are so against high school players entering the league, then why dont they just not draft them high in the first round? Or maybe more realistically, why dont they just sit them on the bench for 3 years instead of getting so impatient? It seems to me that the only high school players that have been properly managed were Kobe and KG.

Mike Wise: Because they're all afraid to miss out on the next LeBron. It's a copycat league. If five of the eight high school kids become busts, then watch: it's back to the college seniors. I've seen it happen before.

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Bethesda, MD: With all of the high school kids goin pro this year, how bad is the NCAA going to suck next season?

Mike Wise: Not that I'm a real stickler about language, but we probably should keep "sucks" off the website. Nothing personal, it's just a little juvenile and Jim Rome-ish and the Post does have high standards -- even though they hired me.

Anyhow, yes, the NCAA will be bad next season. It's too bad really, because I remember getting up in the morning early and waiting for the big players on the big teams when I was a kid. Now, college hoops is March Madness and who gets to be No. 1 next week. It's really too bad.

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DC from Philly: What did you think of the sixer's pick at 9?

Mike Wise: Major, major pick. I don't know as much about the draft as our college guy, Eric Prisbell, but he seemed to think Iguodala would go as high as No. 5. So I think it helps the Sixers.

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silver spring: Showing my age (mid-40s) and my loyalty (Portland), but who is the LaRue Martin of this draft?

Mike Wise: That's hard to say, because saying a guy could be a bust the day after he just experienced the greatest moment of his young life is pretty harsh.

But if Emeka Okafor has back problems that persist, he could go down as a questionable No. 2.

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annandale, virginia: How does the new center compare to Muresan?

Mike Wise: Very raw, like Gheorghe. But I think he'll be okay if he actually makes the team, which is not a given.

I miss Gheorghe, though. Fun guy. Once took a picture with my niece in Sacramento, who yelled, "Hey, it's the guy in My Giant." Sad, no, your pro career boiled down to being in a bad movie with Billy Crystal?

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Washington, DC: Um...Delonte West and Tony Allen...in your opinion, are the Celtics morons or what?

Mike Wise: Morons might be a tad strong. Imperialistic and autocratics losers? Yes.

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Alexandria: I liked the Wizards trade with Dallas EXCEPT the fact that the Wiz just gave away the 5th pick. I know Dallas did not have a 1st round pick before the draft, so why did Grunfeld not at least get a future 1st round pick from Dallas? I think Jamison is an upgrade, but I don't think he's worth three players.

Mike Wise: This was such a bad draft it was a great time to give away draft picks, unless you had No. 1. Until Jamison proves otherwise, I think it was a good trade.

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Fairfax, Virginia: It is very unfortunate NBA top draft choice Mr. Telfair sees college as a "waste of time" and "detrimental to his professional career". I suggest to him the purpose of a college education is not to just prepare him for a career, NBA or otherwise, but to prepare him for many of the challenges and opportunities of life. While it may be hard to deny the financial attractions of a professional sports career, I hope Mr. Telfair has greater aspirations for his life than to just play basketball. Fortunately, someone will now have the opportunity to take advantage of the college experience in Mr. Telfair's absence.

Mike Wise: I don't fault Sebastian. He took the money and ran, got a shoe contract and exploited the system that exploited him. But just like the kid who everybody made fun of studying in high school -- until he went out and became something and ended up looking good next to those beached whales who used to be prom kings at the reunion -- going to college is now seen as nerdy and uncool. I don't get it, but that's just me.

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Chicago, IL: Mike:

I heard a rumour of a possible threeway swap between Houston, Washington, and Orlando where the Wizards would get Steve Francis, Orlando would get Kwame Brown and Gilbert Arenas, and Houston would get T. McGrady. Any truth to this? Also, what have you heard about the Wizard's second round pick, Peter John Ramos. Can he contribute next season?

Mike Wise: Wow, this is explosive. I'll check it out, but my guess is if Steve Francis was balking about going to Orlando, why would he want to come back to his college roots to a team incapable recently of getting to the playoffs?

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Silver Spring, Md.: What is the word and your opinion on Juan Dixon? It seemed this year he was repeatedly breaking off the offense to fire up ill-advised shots. And it seemed that Kwame's famous comments that were interpreted as being about Arenas were at least in part about Juan. Juan seems like such a coachable and hardworking guy, so his play this year was surprising. Make no mistake, however -- if his game develops so that he hits 48% of his shots instead of 35%, no one will care if he breaks off the offense because he will be the second coming of Bobby Jackson. The question is whether that will happen, and if so, will he still be a Wizard when it does?

Mike Wise: Juan is not in Wizards' long-term plans. They have too many guys who can score that are bigger than him. They will probably move him in a deal for a big man is my guess.

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Annapolis, MD: Isn't Jamison a Power forward, he is 6'9

Mike Wise: Yeah, but all these guys can dribble and shoot from the perimeter now. And he's not a brute underneath. So I think he's more of a swingman personally.

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Washington, DC: Very good analysis of Etan Thomas, Mike. Fans see players block shots and think that means he's a good defender. Etan is a terrific shot blocker, but not a good defender. He scraps but is limited. Seems like a good guy. A solid bench guy, but you need to be careful you don't overspend for those. The Wizards came so so close to being able to pick Vroman or Varejao who would have filled the exact same role as Etan for much less.

Mike Wise: yes, but those players would not have been available as full-time starters for a while, is my guess. Etan is a nice stopgap, but he may be gone in July through free agency.

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Washington, D.C.: Hey Mike, love your columns you're becoming one of my favorites..so if the Wizards need the type of player like Brad Miller or Oaktreee, who's out there today available, that would be better the Etan, who I think is steadly improving, bonehead plays aside

Mike Wise: Thanks, Mom. It's about time the website recognized your sign-on.

Seriously, Mr. or Ms. DC, I don't know who's out there that would be better than Etan for the money. I might keep him just because I'd hate to lose a guy like that.




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Mike Wise: We're going on about an hour and a half and I'm sure some of you have to get back to work or children or, even more important, your rotisserie leagues.

So...thanks again for a really good discussion. I had no idea there was this much passion for the Wizards. It's actually refreshing given how bad they have been. I couldn't get to about 82 questions I wanted to, but I'll try to be more succinct and faster next time.

Take care and have a good weekend,
Mike

P.S. I'm going to pick one more question from the lot and sign off with that.

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Maryland: Mike, can we take a moment to look at the expansion draft? I noticed something interesting about Charlotte's selections. Check it out:

Lonny Baxter: played for Washington in 2004.
Pedrag Drobnjak: drafted by Washington in 1997.
Jahidi White: drafted by Washington in 1998, played for Washington for 6 seasons.

Isn't the conclusion obvious? Charlotte will win the NBA Championship next year.

Mike Wise: Nice, very nice. Even if they lose the finals in seven games, they can always blame it on not taking Stack and Laettner in the expansion draft and really giving the Bobcats a Wizard presence.

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