Hurricane Ivan

Severe Weather Tracking

Hurricane Ivan veered north along its path toward Alabama's Gulf Coast as it blasted 100 mph winds through the southeast of Louisiana. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm named Jeanne is gathering strength in the Caribbean. More than two million residents and tourists have evacuated the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.com, will be online Thursday, Sept. 16, at 10 a.m. ET to discuss the path of the hurricane and severe weather tracking.

A transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Arlington, Va.: You have a real energy when you're talking to fairly boring people like Jim Lehrer but did you ever think maybe you're scaring people too much, for instance, by telling the reporters to take cover for their lives last night? It seemed a little much. Thanks.

Joe Bastardi: 10 feet of water and 120mph winds....for me it is life threatening....besides, if I did not say that and someone died, how would I feel?

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New Orleans, La.: Well, it's 6 am in the Big Easy, and I am really glad I didn't evacuate. We're still waiting for Ivan, but this hurricane of mass destruction has yet to be found. It's pleasantly breezy outside, but no rain, no power outage, nothing bad at all. My friend's daughter left yesterday for Atlanta, it took her 21 hours. Eight hours just to get to Slidell, a trip that normally takes 45 minutes. So the question is, next time they call for an evacuation, who will heed the call?

Joe Bastardi: anyone listening to us, because we were telling people this
was not the kind of storm that could do it, even if it did come in earlier

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Joe Bastardi: Ivan is inland and for us it may be very similar to the rain
that Frances dealt., Mean Jeanne the wind and rain machine
will cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth ( not for me, cause
I love the challenge) for forecasters in the southeast and gulf
this weekend into next week

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Bethesda Md: Is the long term correlation between cycles of El Nino and the recent spate of tropical storms going to continue? I've heard it said that the long term Nino cycle would indicate a long term increase in tropical storms, for a period as long as the next 15-20 years. Can you venture a comment?

Joe Bastardi: you need to get on our pro site on accuweather.com as this
is dealt with. It is not an el nino cycle, but cyles of the overall
oceans and to be fair, the answer is something that can not be
answered here

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Manassas, Va.: I hear the storm may stall. When do you now see heavy rains moving into the Northern Va. area?

Joe Bastardi: yes, you can hear me on wmal every morning, and I bluntly
called it rainstorm Ivan this morning for us

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Washington, D.C.: Thank you for holding this live chat. I am flying to New Orleans this Monday night and staying there for a week. Would you say there is a high chance that New Orleans will survive unscathed from this next hurricane (Jeanne)?

Joe Bastardi: I think this will get back into the gulf and could be a problem for them. Keep in mind it takes a particular kind of hurricane
to cause the kind of hype destruction someone decided
to send New Orleans into a panic over. The storm has occured,
in 1947. It has to hit NORTH of the mouth of the Mississippi
and come from the east south east. This shoves the storm
surge into lake Ponchatraine and elevates the level of the lake
15-20, then the north winds drives it into the city. The hype this
time was unfounded and I made sure that was stated on all
my tv appearences BEFORE the fact. In 1965 Betsy hit with
170 mph winds and did not do the kind of damage that was
being talked about here as far as 15-20 feet of water in the city.
Whoever decided to ramp up that speculation, does not understand the history of New Orleans hurricanes. There is a storm that can do that, and the very real problem is that
it might only be a cat 2, but if it hits in the manner I described
then its a problem

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Gaithersburg, Md.: Hi Joe--

I have three questions regarding hurricanes: What makes them intensify? Why is the northeast quadrant always the strongest part of the hurricane? Lastly, what makes the wind gust? I've never heard a complete answer for any of these questions and hope you can help. Thank you.

Joe Bastardi: The net inflow and outflow of air must be sufficient for a removal of mass ( lowering pressure)
2) the northeast quad is only the most intense when the hurricanes structure is distorted. Major hurricanes are strong
in all quads and intensifying storms such as alex at hatteras
are often stronger in the land facing quad do do tighthening
by frictional effects. It comptetely caught other forecasters
off gaurd. If you heard me on Wmal the day before, I was
talking about how this storm was going to be stronger. Charley
was the same, If they are weakening, they are strongest to the
right of path of movement because the other side becomes
distorted. 3) Frictional effects cause the winds discontinuity,
which means it gusts. In addition variances in the turbulence
and stability of the storm do it too

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washingtonpost.com: Mr. Bastardi, can you tell us more information on tropical storm Jeanne -- when will it become a hurricane and what is the projected path of the storm?

Joe Bastardi: already a hurricane and will threaten Florida this weekend
Gut call is it goes back into the gulf and feel hurricane
center will adjust their track to the further south and slower idea

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Re: New Orleans, La.: Get a grip. They tell you to evacuate for your own safety. They don't know exactly where the storm will hit land, and if it had turned slightly differently and hit a little further west, how would you feel then? I see them as precautionary evacuations because it's better safe than sorry.

Joe Bastardi: I always told people to heed warnings. The problem is
in new Orleans, this storm was not going to cause
20 feet of water downtown. You need a certain kind of path
as I tried to explain. I have no problem with the evactuation
and that is not what I was saying. I was saying this was never
going to be their "disaster storm" But that doesnt mean
you stay there. 4 feet of water and 5 inches of rain is
a problem no one needs to be around for.

Can you please understand that history has taught us many
lessons, and its well worth our while to use those lessons
in anything we do. There is a set way the disaster alluded to
happens in New Orleans.

its funny, one person hammers me for cautioning a reporter
in the path of a 10 foot surge and 120 mile an hour wind,
and you are telling me to get a grip by saying that the impossible
was not going to happen. No mas, pr favor

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Vienna, Va.: When was the last time there was a series of hurricanes such as this season's? The strength and consistency worry me and make me wonder if this has anything to do with global warming like in the movie, The Day After Tomorrow.

Joe Bastardi: 1985, but more common in the 40s and 50s

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Falls Church, Va.: Is it possible Jeanne will weaken enough over Hispaniola that it will dissipate soon after?

Joe Bastardi: not likely

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Alexandria, Va.: Are more tropical storms expected after Jeanne?

Joe Bastardi: I would thing 2-3 more will develop, in fact one may
form over the next few days in the far eastern atlantic

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Bethesda, Md.: Forecasts for Ivan caused the evacuation of millions of people from the Keys to Louisiana, and as well as deaths, property and economic losses due to the preparations and evacuations themselves, many of which later turned out to unnecessary. Are there studies that compare the costs and lives lost in the evacuations and preparations with those of the actual storms?

Joe Bastardi: My attitude is to supply a forecast that is as accurate as possible and let the person make the descision. But that is a "private sector" viewpoint, and may seem cold. But I feel if I tell you
that a storm is coming with 100 mph and a 10 foot surge, you
have to make the call for yourself.
But here is the problem. The mission of the hurricane center is
to protect lives and property, not only of people warned, but people that have to save other people. Suppose you think you want to
ride it out, and then suddenly realize you have bit off more than you can chew and call for emergency services., Are we not
putting at risk anyone who has to go to try to save you.

Point is, no matter how I feel about differences in the forecast,
the bottom line is that if someone with proven expertise that
has a mission as theirs issues a warning, it should be heeded.
We can talk about the wisdom later

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Ann Arbor, Mich.: Mr. Bastardi,

I think "Get a Grip" was in fact chiding the person pooh-poohing the suggestion to evacuate.

I live in SE Michigan and every year we go through the tornado cycle. We depend -daily- on the National Weather Service and NOAA All-Hazards weather radio during those months. When my area winds up in the convective discussion, that's my clue to take notice.

Warnings are never issued informally. A warning means conditions are right for extreme weather to occur. The HURRICANE may not smite the Big Easy, but there may be other effects. Better to know and be prepared!

Keep up the good work!

Joe Bastardi: yah, I am a little too think skinned sometimes. Combat Joe
sometimes shows up instead of Cumbaya Joe

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Washington DC: Do you have any sense as to how large a hurricane Jean may become?

Joe Bastardi: I think it could hit cat 3.

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Ashburn, Va.: Do most hurricanes need & are drawn to the warm waters of the Gulf opposed to going up the east coast where the waters (I assume) are cooler?

Thanks for the honest answers instead of the scare mongering I sense from others in media.

Joe Bastardi: Its a complex answer, but let me say that the cycle we are in will
produce hurricanes that rival any we have seen on the east coast
over the next 10 years. I do something no one else does, issue
a landfall predictiion forecast, and it is scaled and scored and is
having great success, so much so people are now paying for
it. ( that is how the private sector gets grant money..spends
thousands of hours, in this case 25 years, developping something
before a penny shows up). In any case it predicted this kind of year
and we have shown this on some of my TV hits. Its been on line
since June on our pro sit. But I will tell you this, People are stunned by what is going on because they dont understnad
the history. In 1944 a hurricane destroyed every boardwark
from the Carolinas to New England. winds hit 160 at cape Henry
Va. In 1938 a hurricane sent 30 feet of water up narragansett
bay in Rhode Island with wind gusts to 186 at Blue Hill near
Boston. In 1954, 3 cat 3 or greater hurricanes hit the east coast.
So the time is near, when the news will shift to the east coast, before this cycle wanes for good in 15 years or so.

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Overland Park, Kan.: I can't find any surface wind obs (C-mans, buoys, metars) that support even CAT 1 winds

My suspicions are that landfalling GULF storms more easily ingest lower thetaE into
the boundary layer (than do Fla landfalls). This would tend to stabilize their
lowest levels and prevent free atmos. winds from mixing to the ground. This is destruction of potential vorticity at its finest.

The media overhypes these winds. There is a big difference between sustained winds and gusts. People forget 65kt sustained winds can be scary, and do some damage.

thanks,

Gregory Postel, PH.D.
Guaranteed Weather, LLC

Joe Bastardi: well alot of the stations went out but 52 foot waves can only
occur with winds that were that strong.

However, you my friend make a point I have been arguing
for years with Miami, one that Bob Case at the hurricane
center has argued when he was there, that the pattern that causes
weakening stops winds from getting to the surface while every
mph gets there when storms are tightening...
So we march tot he same drummer.

The damage will show this was a cat 3, but it weakened
off its peak

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Fairfax, Va.: I'm planning a vacation to New Orleans for Halloween. Has there ever been a Hurricane that late in the season?

Joe Bastardi: yes, Juan in 1985. However every year there are hurricanes,
and they can be ordered in the bars

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New York, NY: Joe, any specs so far on the upcoming winter ? Cold and snowy ? Cold and dry ? What do you think. Also, what are your thoughts on the lack of summer this year and what seems to be an early cooling for this fall?

Joe Bastardi: temp normal to below in east, precip normal to above on east
coast. working on it now

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Southern Rhode Island: Mr.B
We here in New England have been spared any hint of a Major hurricane. Is the pattern this year at all conducive for such a hit.

Joe Bastardi: I dont think so but each one must be taken as they come

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Ithaca, NY: It looks like Hurricane Jeanne is moving dew west on IR Satellite right into Hispanola, there might be nothing left of it if it doesn't turn north soon.

Jimmy

Joe Bastardi: this is part of my idea on the slower and further south track
that will result in much more of a threat to Florida and the gulf
I suspect you will see TPC adjust with time

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King of Prussia, Pa.: Are Ivan's remnants still likely to stall in the Smokies or is it more likely now to drench the mid-Atlantic (VA, MD & PA)?

Joe Bastardi: Looks like rain will come all the way up. The circulation will stall out a little but who cares when tons of moisture are headed your direction. Friday night Saturday is probably the worst. Stay tuned to KYW 1060 for the latest.

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Anonymous: I don't know much about the science of storms but will there be tornadoes following the winds of the hurricanes?

Joe Bastardi: As the hurricane spins down, vortices spin out away from the center on the east side of the storm. Nearly every hurricane does this and Frances had the second highest number of tornados next to Beulah

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Arlington, Va.: A general question: am I correct that a hurricane is essentially one huge tornado that, because it forms in the open water, picks up intensity from the water rather that dissipating as a tornado does when it meets resistance of solid land?

Joe Bastardi: Not really. The dynamics are much different. Non tropical storms that typically spawn tornados are cold core systems and the instability is produced by the vertical difference in temperature. Hurricanes are warm cored systems which are nature's way to disperse heat from the tropics to higher latitudes. They need to be vented from above to really strengthen.

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Joe Bastardi: I have to go now. You have been great.... I love you, See you in
Vegas...Try the veal and tip your waitpersons.

Good night and may God Bless ( red Skelton)

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