U.S. commanders said that one of the biggest signs that these offensives worked was the insurgents' inability to disrupt the Jan. 30 elections. Still, several senior officers here with access to intelligence reports said the long-term damage done to the insurgency remains difficult to gauge.
They said that the elections, which drew 58 percent of 14.6 million eligible voters, have offered a clear political alternative to the insurgents' rejection of a democratic model and have fortified resistance to violent efforts at intimidation. Maj. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, commander of the 1st Cavalry Division, which patrols Baghdad, reported a surge in tips from Iraqis about local insurgent activity.
U.S. soldiers carry out a raid in Mosul, Iraq. U.S. commanders say recent offensives have battered the ranks of mid-level insurgents, but none of the 30 leaders have been captured.
(Jim Macmillan -- AP)
|
_____Top Insurgents_____
•
Graphic: The Iraqi government has released the names of the most wanted insurgents operating in Iraq, including Abu Musab Zarqawi.
|
| |
|
"My unblinking eye is 7 million people in Baghdad," Chiarelli said. "That's why we keep talking about our tips line that people can call."
At the same time, officers said, the strong showings by Shiite and Kurdish parties in the voting could breathe new life into the insurgency by making Sunnis feel further excluded from power. U.S. commanders worry that insurgents, in an attempt to foment sectarian strife, will intensify attacks on Shiite targets.
Under the circumstances, military leaders here say, political compromise and power-sharing that emerge in coming months are likely to have as much to do with shaping the security environment as in shaping a new government and constitution. "The political outreach will have more impact on the insurgency than our military operations," one U.S. general said.
Also key, according to U.S. commanders, will be the level of cooperation from Iraq's neighbor, Syria.
Iraqi Baath Party loyalists are said to be using Syria as a base for financing and supplying the insurgents. So the Bush administration has sought Syrian help to stop the movement of fighters and equipment across the border into Iraq and crack down on insurgent leaders in Syria. While Syria has taken some action on the border, it has not been as aggressive against Iraqi operatives inside the country, several U.S. officers said.
Iraq authorities recently stirred speculation of a major breakthrough in the hunt for top insurgents by reporting instances in which they claimed that Zarqawi was nearly caught. A senior U.S. commander here in a position to know, however, said he was unaware of any such case.
Having been burned in the past by grossly underestimating the size of the insurgency, military intelligence experts here now shy away from providing new estimates, at least in public. In private they report that they are looking hard at possible new methods for assessing the size and capabilities of the armed opposition.
Ultimately, given the cultural barriers involved, the best prospects for penetrating the insurgency may come not from greater U.S. efforts but from Iraqi efforts, U.S. officers said.
As part of a renewed U.S. effort this year to beef up Iraq's security forces, a U.S. advisory team will be assigned full time to Iraq's intelligence service, and intelligence assistance teams will operate in the field with Iraqi military units, officers said.
The number of counterinsurgency raids also will rise, Vines predicted. "But they will be by Iraqi soldiers and police," he said.
