Cuban Americans, who represented about 80 percent of Hispanic voters in the 2000 election, now comprise barely half the state's Hispanic voters. Job growth in the Orlando area has led to an influx of Puerto Ricans and Central Americans -- who typically vote for Democrats -- and has ended the Republicans' once-unquestioned dominance of Florida's Hispanic vote. This trend complicates the effect of the U.S. Senate race on the Nov. 2 ballot, which features Mel R. Martinez, a Cuban-immigrant success story who was Bush's former housing secretary, against Democrat Betty Castor.
"You have the potential to excite Hispanic voters, but the question is: Do other Hispanics [besides Cuban Americans] come out?" Secada said.
Bush appears to be suffering a small decline in popularity among Cuban Americans because of anger over his administration's policy that limits travel to the island. During campaign appearances in the Miami area last weekend, Kerry emphasized his support for allowing more family visits to Cuba.
Looming over the race is something that might best be described as "The Power of Jeb." Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), the president's brother, is so popular that he confounds conventional political wisdom, said Sergio Bendixen, a Miami pollster who works primarily for Democratic candidates and groups. Jeb Bush spoke Spanish during an endless stream of hurricane news conferences this summer and while escorting his brother on highly publicized visits to storm-damaged areas.
The governor's appeal -- he won a majority of the normally Democratic Puerto Rican vote when he was reelected in 2002 -- is likely to have significant carryover that could help the president secure large numbers of moderate Hispanic voters, Bendixen said, perhaps enough to carry the state. "He's an icon in the Hispanic community," Bendixen said of Jeb Bush. "He's what makes things difficult for those of us working on the Democrat side."
Celestin has seen the Jeb effect among Haitian Americans. Even a small gain in that group would be considered a coup for Republicans trying to overcome widespread outrage among the black population, many of whom believe they were disenfranchised in the 2000 election. Jeb Bush drew cheers this weekend at a rally when he talked about the U.S. government's efforts to stabilize Haiti. He also promised to discuss with the president a long-stalled request for "temporary protected status" for Haitian immigrants, which would end the Bush administration's policy of automatic deportations on the grounds that Haiti allegedly harbors terrorists.
Such entrees are increasingly gaining support for Republicans among Haitians, Celestin said, and are building on the appeal of the party's conservative social platform -- such as opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage -- in a community that is almost universally Catholic.
"Prior to 1998, there would have been almost no votes for Bush in the Haitian community," Celestin said. "Now, maybe we can say we are the 500 votes that would put him in office."
