"I think any expectation that the interest groups will lay down against the president's nominee is misplaced," said Viet D. Dinh, a former Justice Department official who worked on judicial nominations.
But Dinh noted that Senate Democrats would face a difficult choice if their only way to stop a Bush nominee were to launch a filibuster, which has rarely been used against Supreme Court nominees. "The Democrats will have to decide on the meaning of the defeat of Tom Daschle, whether it is about obstructionism or just a midcourse correction," Dinh said.
The flap could jeopardize Sen. Arlen Specter's expected chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee.
(George Widman -- AP)
|
|
The list of probable nominees remains much as it has always been. At or close to the top is White House counsel Alberto R. Gonzales, 49, who is trusted by the president and who would be the first Hispanic nominated to the court.
Though Gonzales is still seen as a likely first pick by Republican insiders, his luster has been diminished somewhat by recent controversies over the civil liberties impact of the administration's policies in the war on terrorism. Gonzales is also distrusted by the Republican right, which regards him as less than reliable on such issues as abortion and affirmative action.
Also high on the Bush list are J. Harvie Wilkinson III, 60, a federal appeals court judge in Richmond who is seen as reliably conservative and possessed of the seniority and stature necessary to serve as chief justice, and J. Michael Luttig, 50, who serves on the same court.
Others include appeals court judges Samuel A. Alito Jr., 54; Emilio M. Garza, 57; and California Supreme Court Justice Janice R. Brown, 55.
A popular scenario among court watchers is a double switch, with Bush elevating Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, a centrist, to chief justice while nominating a new associate justice.
But a Republican source who asked for anonymity to speak more freely said there is "no chance" of that. Also considered unlikely, said Republicans familiar with administration thinking, is any promotion of Justices Clarence Thomas or Antonin Scalia to chief justice, notwithstanding their popularity on the right.
