Consensus Emerging on Iraqi Premier

Jafari, a Shiite and Interim Vice President, Seen as Front-Runner by Some

Ibrahim Jafari, 58, a physician and former exile, is one of four candidates being considered as the next prime minister of Iraq, officials say. (Hadi Mizban -- AP)

BAGHDAD, Feb. 15 -- Iraq's interim vice president, a soft-spoken physician and former exile who leads the Dawa party, emerged as a surprise front-runner Tuesday to assume the powerful post of prime minister, several Iraqi officials said, although they cautioned that the frenetic negotiations among parties on forming the next government were far from complete.

Ibrahim Jafari, 58, was considered one of four candidates from the United Iraqi Alliance, a largely Shiite Muslim coalition tacitly backed by the country's most influential religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. The coalition won 48 percent of the vote in Iraq's Jan. 30 elections for a 275-member parliament. Under a complicated formula, it is expected to hold a slim majority with 140 seats. In negotiations this week, it has tried to come up with a consensus choice for a position that will become the government's public face.

"There is an initial agreement to nominate Dr. Ibrahim Jafari," said Adnan Ali, a spokesman for the Dawa party.

Another official involved in the negotiations and two officials with a nongovernmental organization supporting the political process -- all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity -- said they, too, believed Jafari was the front-runner.

"It is already basically decided," said one of the officials, who then added, "there is still a lot of horse trading to do."

Although negotiations over positions in the government started even before Iraq's landmark vote, they began in earnest this week. Three coalitions control an estimated 255 of the 275 seats in parliament: the United Iraqi Alliance, with about 140; a coalition of the two main Kurdish parties, with 75; and a list led by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, with about 40.

All of the officials cautioned that no deal had been struck and that the talks could produce new candidates. Several said Ahmed Chalabi, a former U.S. client and the head of the Iraqi National Congress, was still in the running for the post, which will overshadow the president as the key decision-making figure. Two officials said another candidate, Adel Abdul Mahdi, the interim finance minister who is well-regarded by the U.S. Embassy, had withdrawn from the running Tuesday.

"My general feeling is that at this point it's still very early," a U.S. official said.

A senior U.S. diplomat added that nearly everyone involved in the talks was speaking on behalf of their own candidate. "I don't know of anyone who can talk from a position that is not colored by their hopes and aspirations," he said.

Under Iraq's interim constitution, the parliament is supposed to choose a president and two deputy presidents who will, in turn, choose a prime minister. That choice must be unanimous. A cabinet will follow, which will be approved by the presidency council.

For the largely symbolic post of president, the Kurdish alliance has supported Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the two main Kurdish parties, the U.S. diplomat said. Another U.S. official described Talabani as the front-runner. The Kurdish alliance is expected to support the United Iraqi Alliance's choice for prime minister in return for support for Talabani.

The United Iraqi Alliance has tried to maintain a cohesive front but is made up of competing factions, including Jafari's Dawa party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which had backed Mahdi. If the Supreme Council concedes the prime ministership, it may push for key ministries such as defense and interior and the head of the parliamentary committee that will be charged with drafting the constitution, said one of the officials with the nongovernmental group, who maintains contacts with a cross section of the 12 parties likely to take seats in parliament.

The defense and interior ministries will play a key role in confronting a nearly two-year-old insurgency, as well as determining the intensity of a campaign to eliminate former Baath Party officials from ministries and security forces.

"They'll extract their political pound of flesh," said another official with the nongovernmental group.