Thumbing Way Toward Postseason

Larry Hughes, left, will be forced to take a seat alongside assistant Phil Hubbard while he heals from a thumb injury. The Wizards, however, should be just fine without him. (Toni L. Sandys -- The Washington Post)

One of the more comical story lines to play out in Washington sports this week was the presumed loss of another Wizards season. Once Larry Hughes went out with a broken thumb and his teammates were blown out in San Antonio and then Dallas, that was it. Rebook the Delaware time share. Season's over. For the ninth straight April, the Wizards would make Cancun before the first round of the NBA playoffs.

It was an understandable fear, built up over years of bad luck and worse basketball. And it was felt by knowledgeable fans and observers who are used to the organization falling apart at the hint of hardship. Of course they're done. They have to be. They're the Wizards.

But the problem with that logic: It discounts this team, a roster full of too many weapons and mature veterans to quit on a season. Maybe it's completely out of line and premature to write this, but the doomsayers' logic won't hold.

Partly by default because of the horrid conference they play in -- and mostly because they care about sharing the basketball and playing purposefully in the fourth quarter -- the Washington Wizards are going to end their playoff drought and represent the franchise in the 2005 NBA playoffs. They will probably host a first-round series, if not a second-round series. Honest.

Not even a key injury during a key midseason stretch to their most steady player on both ends of the court can keep them away from a meaningful game in late April.

This might not be much of a revelation, because the Wizards have been on this course for a while. Especially on those nights they used to lay down after a rough loss in overtime. Or after two blowout losses on the road. Now, they win the next game, sometimes convincingly, like last night's 118-109 victory over an abominable Toronto Raptors team.

They are headed toward the playoffs because Coach Eddie Jordan has entrusted Gilbert Arenas, his starting point guard, with more responsibility. Miracle of miracles, Arenas appears ready for it.

"He was predictably unpredictable last year," Jordan said after last night's game. "You didn't know what you would get from Gilbert on the court, in the locker room. You didn't know what his demeanor would be like. Now he just has this killer instinct. I can almost rely on him every night to get it going."

Arenas had a decent 8-to-4, assist-to-turnover ratio against Toronto. And while he attempted only 14 shots, he got to the line 20 times, converting 17 free throws. But he's such a different player.

See, Hughes being out for a month is a huge blow. At first glance, it's one of the more devastating injuries for an NBA team this season. Steve Nash went down in Phoenix and the Suns were unable to win a game without him. Andrei Kirilinko's knee injury sent Utah from the surprise team in the West in early November to another opponent. The Nets plummeted without Jason Kidd early and the Lakers are feeling what life without Kobe Bryant is like.

That we're even putting Hughes name alongside four other all-stars states his own case as an all-star. But now comes the more pressing question about the Wizards. Is Larry Hughes their only all-star?

No. Antawn Jamison most likely will be selected by Eastern Conference coaches as a forward in early February. And, this is just a crazy guess, but there's a good bet Arenas is going, too. In a little less than three weeks, the coaches will decide whether he's more than just an unbelievable offensive talent. Jordan essentially gave him that opportunity when he decided to return Juan Dixon to the bench last night and insert Jarvis Hayes into the starting lineup. Jordan gave up the idea that Juan Dixon could be Hughes after two games.

"We didn't need to have two point guards," Jordan said. "I think now is the time Gilbert doesn't have to coexist with another guy. He's the guy. He's going to bring the ball up and make the decisions. I don't want him to look over and see Juan or Laron [Profit] is going to run the break. He's going to run the break now. Just like in a sense Jason Kidd gets the ball all the time, Gilbert is now going to get the ball all the time. That's the avenue I'm going now."

Arenas, who only turned 23 this month, is a tremendous improvisational talent who changes notes and keys more unpredictably than Thelonious Monk. Irrespective of the game situation, play called or time on the clock, Arenas's teammates often have no idea what he will do. Jordan rolls with the occasional erratic play rather than condemning it. He lets Arenas be Arenas, which has become a contagion in the locker room. In turn for the occasional ability to free lance, Arenas gives the Wizards what they want on most possessions.

Lately, he seems to understand when to pass, when to shoot and how to manage the clock -- all the qualities that make up a bona fide NBA floor leader.

Early last night, Hughes fiddled with his right thumb, showing off the splint encasing the broken, swollen digit on his shooting hand. It was an hour before a passive crowd filed in late to MCI Center to see the Wizards beat a team they should. Hughes spoke of how he made sure to needle his teammates after they fell apart without him on the road in San Antonio and Dallas. He went so far as to call several Wizards on their cell phones immediately after the losses.

He wants to come back in late February or early March to a prospective playoff team. And he will. They went into the night a half-game behind battling Cleveland and Detroit for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Imagine a pro basketball franchise in Washington having home court until the conference finals? It's insane that we're even debating whether the Wizards have one or two all-stars on their roster. Hughes could have made it three.

Never mind about his injury debilitating the club for too long. The Wizards have too much offensive machinery and, it appears, too much character to fold. Arenas is now leading them. This team is headed to the postseason. They will have home-court advantage for at least one round. Give up the timeshare and mark it down.