Outlook: Democracy in the Middle East

For two years, former New York Times Mideast correspondent Youssef M. Ibrahim has been saying that President Bush's policies on the Middle East were all wrong. Suddenly, he says in an article in Sunday's Outlook section, he's reconsidering. With demonstrations in Beirut and Kuwait, elections in Palestinian territories and Iraq, and grudging democratic gestures from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, he and many other people in the predominantly Muslim Middle East find themselves praising the devoutly Christian U.S. president, whose persistent calls for democracy in the Middle East are looking less like preaching and more like timely encouragement.

Ibrahim cautions that it is too early for congratulations. Bush may feel inspired by the example of President Ronald Reagan, who told Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down this wall" in Berlin, but the Middle East may more closely resemble 1989 Beijing than 1989 Berlin. While communism collapsed largely of its own weight in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union without U.S. intervention, in pro-democracy demonstrators in China were squashed. What will U.S. policy in the Middle East look like if the autocrats, princes and religious fundamentalists make a stand against the voices of freedom?

Ibrahim, who was also energy editor for The Wall Street Journal and who is now managing director of a Dubai-based consulting firm called Strategic Energy Investment Group, discussed his article, Will The Mideast Bloom?, on Monday, March 14 at 9 a.m. ET.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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McLean, Va.: I am very heartened by the voices of democracy that we are growing to hear in the Middle East but however if supposing that elections are held, wouldn't there be a chance that terrorist and fundamentalist organization might rise to power?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: A very good chance indeed. And it has happened in Algeria in 1991 when the Muslim fundamentalist won the elections which resulted in the military junta cancelling it, which, resulted in a civil war that has claimed over 100,000 lives since. So, question is which is the worst nightmare? at this point, I opt for democracy. Cheers.

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Colorado Springs, Colo.: Dear Mr. Ibrahim,
I am in eighth grade and am studying the transition to democracy in Iraq for my term research paper. My question for you is:

Do the people of Iraq believe that democracy is worth the loss of life in Iraq and the middle east?

Thank you for considering my question.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Yes. At this point in time, I believe they have figured out that between Saddam Hussein and democracy, no matter how unruly it is, democracy is best. Same goes for most folks out here in the Arab world. After all they never had any alternative to dictatorship. Cheers.

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Kuwait:
Why Americans are blamed for all Middle East crisis for the last five decades rather than Arab rulers who are decision makers for their own affairs?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Don't know and am not sure this is correct. I hear a lot of blame for Mubarak, Al Sabah, Al Saud, etc. am I wrong?

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Amman, Jordan: Why do you suppose American so-called "liberals" oppose U.S. efforts to promote democracy in the Middle East? Would any of these so-called "liberals" live in a society that allows ritual killings and beheadings?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Not sure what you mean. Liberals? Beheadings? Can you rephrase you question? Thanks and regards.

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Glenmont, Md.: For decades, Islamic rulers have rejected democracy and human rights much like the segregationist South did up through the 1960s by objecting to "outsiders" imposing their will. Have the local populations finally begun to see through this evil hypocrisy?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: I fear your generalizations contain a serious racial slur. I am an Arab American and I do not like it. I don't believe in "Islamic rulers" and stuff like Arabs "rejected democracy" or objecting to outsiders, which I imagine means white, or black saviors, such as yourself, and I sure as hell do not like the reference to "local populations."
Dear friend, is this a lynching? Sorry, count me out. Cheers. Watch your language. I will answer you when you are polite.

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Arlington, Va.: Describe the state of public opinion towards the U.S. Do you think it will improve or get worse?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: It is very bad, but can improve if properly managed. Cheers.

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Alexandria, Va.: While to some it may appear that Bush was right all along, as an American, I find his intentions a little shady. President Bush didn't push "democratization" of the Middle East until afterr it became clear to the world that Iraq did not have WMD and was not involved in the 9/11 attacks.

Unrelatedly, I find it ironic that the United States is pressing Syria for a firm date on exit from Lebanon, but offer no such firm date for when the United States will exit Iraq.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: You have made several points, and I agree with them. First, you are right in saying Bush never meant to be democratic in his Iraqi adventure, but, frankly, as an Arab, what do I care, if, indeed, it turns out this way?
Second, as far as Syria is concerned, this is, by far, the most evil regime in the Arab world, and regardless of whether we get out of Iraq or not, it must get out of Syrian, after 30 years? don't you think?

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Quebec, Canada: With the end of Syrian occupation in Lebanon, what do you expect to happen to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups within Lebanon?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: I hope Hezbollah remains. It is Lebanon's guarantee against further Israeli aggressions or attacks... and, in the end, it is a fundamentally Lebanese entity. So if they follow a strictly Lebanese agenda -- not Syrian and not Iranian -- what is wrong? Cheers.

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Silver Spring, Md.: So many Arab governments refuse to make any reforms as long as there isn't peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. Do the people of these countries really buy into this as a valid reason to keep the status quo?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: My wife is from Silver Spring. Love the place. Do not know what governments think, and, does it really matter at this point.?Point is people are tired of war and want to make peace. But crucial question is whether the Likud folds want peace, too. I doubt it. Labor yes, Likud? What do you think?

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Durham, N.C.: Various groups demonstrated against Syrian presence in Lebanon. Hezbollah supporters demonstrated with a much larger crowd to affirm Syrian presence and against U.S. and U.N. interference.

What had accomplished? How much significant should one attach to the size of the demonstrating crowd? Does it mean that the larger the crowd, the more righteous the cause?

How cost effective is mass demonstration as a mean of political dialogue?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: In the arab world, you should attach immense importance to free wheeling -- underline free wheeling -- demonstrations. Watch television tonight. The agaisnst-Syria demonstrators were mammoth. The speeches in Beirut were enough to wet your eyes. Something is happening out there. Cheers.

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Clarksburg, Md.: Will the Arab "street" accept the notion of Israel? Not the politicians and elite, but the middle and lower classes. I'm not asking whether or not Israel will be accepted if they do X, Y and Z in response to demands. My question is more of a "pulse" check.

Thank you, Mr. Ibrahim. After 9/11, I found your backbone to be inspiring. You stood up to much Arab bashing, by shining a light back at us.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Accept Israel? On yes or no, the answer is yes. But, and there is always work to do here, it depends on the usual -- giving up settlements, respecting Palestinians as a people and human beings, etc. Is it going to work? I do not know. Your guess is as good as mine. Cheers.

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Munich, Germany: My first impression is that the fact that if some Arab governments have felt obliged to at least rhetorically make some concessions towards democracy, that this is a big step. What will be the major obstacles for these governments to actually implement real steps towards democracy?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: You are right. I think we, the democratically inclined, should take NO prisoners and keep on pushing. But, on the ground, I hope the people will hang on to what they started. We will only PUSH; they must move. Cheers.

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Wheaton, Md.: As democracy spreads in the Middle East, do you think Arabs will end their evil terrorist attacks on Israel?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Yes, once Israel starts treating Palestinians, who are Arabs by the way, as human beings not animals. Cheers.

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Tehran, Iran: What do you think about Iran? Will we have a democratic government at near future?

Could you predict what does world do with our country (Islamic and non-democratic government, I mean)?

Best regards

Youssef M. Ibrahim: I love Iran. Great civilization, great nation, great people. I hope the U.S. and Iran reach and agreement in which neither party dominates. America must accept Iran as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf. And Iran has to... do what... in your opinion?

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Mansura, Egypt: I think if we have real democracy in Middle East, it will lead to the rise of religious radical groups, do you think the United States will push for more real democratic practice in the Middle East, or just use it as pretext to serve its own interests, and Bionshe of Cheley Republic, dictators in the region like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are clear example of U.S. support.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: No, I did not think the U.S. will push for anything that even resembles free democracy in the Middle East. But I think you should. And you should get rid of Hosni and Gamal Mubarak and the Saudis should throw the completely corrupt royal family out. Then we shall see. Cheers.

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Munich, Germany: Has the old codger Ghaddifi said anything yet about the democratic initiatives in Libya? How is the health of democracy west of Egypt in places like Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Good question. Qaddafi is out to lunch, but then he is, now, in bed with G.W. Bush -- unbelievable, but true! The guy is a murderer. A thug. A hoodlum. But G.W. says he is okay now?

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Escanaba, Mich.:

I'm a liberal but I really liked Ronald Reagen. He didn't need any wars to spread Democracy. He actually advocated the use of United Nations' peaceful goodwill to help spread Democracy in 45 states.

Bush is a far cry from Reagen.

By the way, why is Bush's primary reason for the war suddenly forgotten? Remember? We originally went to war because of the threat of WMDs, not to install Democracy. Bush has managed to morph the reason.

Even so, did anyone think to ask the 100,000 now dead civilians that they'd be willing to risk their lives for a democracy? Is a forced democracy, imposed from a foreign state, really a democracy?

Those states are making a move toward democracy because they're terrified that Bush will invade them as well if they don't.

Democracy through terror. I thought that's we were AGAINST (terror, NOT Democracy)!

Thank you for listening.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Bush is not, repeat, not, my cup of tea. Yes, he went to war for oil in my view. But, hey, if that works whati s wrong with it? As an Arab American, I want to get rid of every Arab regime that is rotten, corrupt and oppressive. If Bush does it for me, what do I care? What do you think? Cheers.

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Tampa, Fla.: (1) Who do you think ordered assassinating Mr. Hariri? Pat Buchanan says Bashir Assad would have to be a complete moron to have ordered this. Could rogue elements in the Syrian military and intelligence services have done this? Would you put it past Israel to have done this? They certainly have the means, and do not hesitate to use force (witness their unpunished attack on the USS Liberty in 1967).

(2) Could ascendancy in Iraq of the Sistani school of thought that clerics should not govern be the real wild card? Could this provide theological ammunition to Iranians opposed to their Islamic government, undercutting the Khomeini-inspired arguments of the mullahcrats? Or is Khomeinism too entrenched in Iran? Sistani is Shia, but could his reasoning influence Sunnis, especially those in Saudi Arabia dissatisfied with Wahabism?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Buchanan's opinion is the complete moron. His blind hatred of Israel gets in the way of his, otherwise, good judgment. Syria killed Hariri. Period. End of story. Regardless, the Syrian regime of the Assads is profoundly evil. It should be toppled. Bush doing it is OK with many of us. Does Bushie boy have the cohones? The Israel theory, in this case, is bull. Israel is not a nice country, but they have no interest on Hariri and I am not a believer in tripple conspiracies.

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Cairo, Egypt: Hi Youssef. Here's a question from an old colleague from your university days! How optimistic are you that the coming presidential elections will not just be windowdressing to provide renewed legitimacy to the current regime?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Old AUC heh? Good to hear from you, and I, as many of you out there, believe Hosti, as we call him (in English this variation on his name means -- catastrophe) will do nothing. He only wants one thing -- his son Gamal the magnificent in his place. I think there is only one way with Hosni. Guess. Cheers.

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USA: Do you see Iraq as a trap for the United States? Was it something we should have avoided?

Mr. Chalabi sure doesn't think so.

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Iraq is definitely a trap for the U.S. which may be a good thing... since Vietnam. Maybe we should abandon war or use of force to impose... what do you think?

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Monterey, Calif.: I am a bit surprised to hear you using the word "democracy" so loosely -- almost like Mr. Bush uses "freedom."

What about the fairly massive hidden agenda of the Bush administration, including American empire, economic globalization by corporations, control of oil, Israel, and our geo-strategic interests in the mid-east generally.... and I have not mentioned violence.

Do you see that there are significant strings attached? If so, how do you see the Arab people responding to that?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: I do not like Bush, think he is a moron, do not believe in his motives and I think I made this clear in my article. But, when you see something good happening despite his worse intentions among your people, what the hell?

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Fairfax, Va.: Mr. Ibrahim: Who will dominate the political's arenas in the Arab World if election were held freely today? And why?

Youssef M. Ibrahim: Probably Arab Muslim Fundamentalist, which is horrible. But you got to start someplace, no?

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