Factional Fighting Clouds Gaza's Future

Mohammed Dahlan, a native of Gaza's Khan Younis refugee camp, emerged as a powerful figure as the Palestinian Authority's chief of preventive security in Gaza. Dahlan resigned in 2002 during tensions over the perceived threat he posed to Arafat. When the Palestinians' first prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, appointed Dahlan security minister, Arafat refused to give up control of most of the security agencies. Abbas quit after four months, and Dahlan again found himself out of an official job.

Yet Dahlan remains a major figure among Gaza's various bosses. He has many supporters in the U.S. and British governments, and Israel considers him a plausible future leader in Gaza.

"He's very charismatic. . . . From our perspective he's a good candidate to take control. I don't see any other guy on the Palestinian side who can take control," said David Hacham, a colonel in the Israeli army reserves who is Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's adviser on Arab affairs. "But he can't do it alone. The key to reforming the security bodies is the will and agreement of Arafat."

In an interview in his villa office, Dahlan called for "total change" in the security apparatus. The eight to 12 security agencies should be streamlined into three, he said, a formula that is also part of Egyptian-Israeli-American plans for security in Gaza after an Israeli pullout.

Rashid Abu Shbak, Dahlan's successor as chief of preventive security, talked about similar changes. In his office, Abu Shbak got out a square of paper and sketched a plan for security restructuring. He wrote "army," "intelligence" and "police" at the top of the page. Under each, he listed the security forces that could be brought under those branches.

In fact, said Abu Shbak, this was similar to the official structure of the current system. But he conceded that the Palestinian Authority hierarchy was influenced more by Fatah loyalty, family ties and shared prison terms in Israel than by official positions.

Egypt wants restructuring to bring the chain of command closer to Abu Shbak's sketch and put the whole apparatus under the power of an interior minister. As an incentive to Arafat, the Egyptians also are offering help in guaranteeing stability in Gaza after an Israeli withdrawal. Egypt has volunteered to train and advise the Palestinian security agencies, partly by sending 200 consultants to Gaza, and has invited the various Palestinian factions and security leaders to Cairo for a "national dialogue." The condition is Arafat's commitment to security reform.

But Arafat has answered with his own reform plan, insisting that he remain in control while appointing a longtime loyalist, Maj. Gen. Abdel Razek Majaida, to a new post as security chief. And last month, Hamas and nine other Palestinian factions united to issue a statement opposing Egyptian intervention in Palestinian affairs.

Shifting Loyalties

On a quiet day in Gaza, nothing is quite so palpable as where one cannot go. Intercity roads are blocked by Israeli military checkpoints or piles of rubble dumped to prevent vehicles from passing. Tanks are parked by the side of the road and occasionally shoot at targets that do not always seem clear. The borders with Egypt and Israel are closed.

The restrictions on movement have intensified over more than 3 1/2 years of armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Gaza residents hold Israel directly responsible for their plight, but many also blame the Palestinian Authority for failing to provide basic peace and security.

According to a poll conducted by the Gaza-based General Institute for Information, 94 percent of Palestinians questioned say they live in lawlessness and chaos. A January report by the political committee of the Palestinian Legislative Council, describing a recent deterioration in security, noted a "lack of activity of policemen and security forces that has created a security vacuum that causes citizens to be terrorized by murder, theft, assaults and general lawlessness." The report used a phrase that has come into popular use among Palestinians to sum up the situation: a "chaos of weapons."

"This phenomenon cannot be controlled," said Abu Shbak, the preventive security chief in Gaza, unless Israeli forces withdraw and Gazans no longer bear arms.

But Hacham, the Israeli adviser, said Palestinian passivity is fueling the chaos. "The basic problem is that the Palestinians are not ready to take the necessary actions, taking into consideration that these actions are bringing about rifts in Palestinian society and organizations," he said.

Among Gazans, popular support has shifted toward other organizations eager to fill the vacuum.