As Workers Move Far Out of the City, So Do the Jobs

Stafford, which gained the most jobs in the region, has seen school and home construction rise to keep up with growth. Above, crews work on a new school. (Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post)

Job growth is following residential growth to the fringes of the Washington area, where Stafford County showed the largest increase -- 12.6 percent -- in jobs in Northern Virginia last year.

In a slowly recovering national economy, job growth continued across the region, but the percentages were highest on the edges. The number of jobs grew 2.2 percent in Fairfax County from June 2003 to June 2004, 4 percent in Arlington and .07 percent in Alexandria, but the figure was 8.2 percent in Prince William and 7.3 percent in Loudoun, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economic analysts said that what is happening in Stafford reflects the classic next phase of suburban development. City dwellers moved to Stafford in the 1980s, which brought construction jobs, followed by service jobs at restaurants and stores in the 1990s. The next wave brought an increase in municipal jobs, such as teachers and sheriff's deputies, to educate and protect so many new residents.

The county is now in what economists see as the third chapter, in which an increasingly sophisticated labor force attracts professional firms.

Population growth, from 61,236 residents in 1990 to 115,000 today, fueled the hiring of public employees in the last five years, and municipal workers -- particularly teachers -- accounted for the most new jobs. But the second-largest group was professional jobs, including high-tech employees, accountants and architects.

"The reason businesses are moving out to places like Stafford is the cost of doing business is cheaper, labor force formation is faster in outlying areas and businesses want to locate near rapidly growing labor markets," said Anirban Basu, an economic consultant who studies the Washington-Baltimore corridor. "And this is where the growth is."

With 40 percent of Stafford residents joining the traffic heading north on Interstate 95 for better-paying jobs, economic development officials there hope to lure high-paying companies from Washington and its close-in suburbs, particularly defense contractors. According to the 2000 Census, the median household income in Stafford rose from $58,267 in 1990 to $66,809, putting it above Prince William County's, which has a median income of $65,960.

Tim Baroody, Stafford's director of economic development, is elated about the growth of professional jobs. "Those are the holy grail of jobs," Baroody said. "Those are the jobs we target. We want those because they are family-sustaining jobs that help our economy evolve."

To that end, Stafford has been rushing to open new office space. Last year for the first time, Stafford built more than 1 million square feet of commercial space, double the amount in previous years. The county has lobbied state and federal officials to build an exit directly off I-95 to the new Stafford Regional Airport, between Route 630 and Route 17, and that is expected to happen this year.

But even as Stafford is building its local job base proportionally faster than its northern neighbors, it has not been able to catch up in wages.

According to the Virginia Education Association, Stafford pays teachers less than any community to its north, from Prince William to Fairfax, although it pays more than neighboring Spotsylvania and Fauquier counties.

Virginia Employment Commission data show that professionals and business service employees make less than their counterparts to the north, as do retail employees. According to the commission, Stafford residents who work close to home make an average of $570 a week, compared with $609 in Spotsylvania, $649 in Prince William, $925 in Loudoun and $1,085 in Fairfax.

But Bill Mezger, the commission's chief economist, said he expects wages to rise and at some point be competitive with closer-in communities.

"I don't think wages will be much different [in Stafford] because you're drawing from the same pool of people," he said. "The type of firms coming in now, maybe they are located in Stafford because land is available and it's maybe a bit cheaper. But once they get there, they will draw [employees] from more than Stafford."

This classic development trend -- the evolution of jobs in communities on the fringes of a metropolitan area -- often has negative implications for the city and inner suburbs they surround, Basu said.

"When people are more removed from the core of metro areas, they are removed from civic engagements and cultural institutions," he said. "The affect on the core will be what has always been: dislocation of economic activity."

But it has not happened yet, he said, because the region's economy is generating jobs so quickly "that there is plenty to go around -- for now."